• Political: President Trump’s administration is pushing for tariff resolutions, with the US-China trade ceasefire expiring today (August 12), potentially leading to tariffs escalating from 30%/10% to 145%/125% if no deal is reached. Trump has criticized Canada and unleashed tariffs on allies, while negotiating deals with the EU (15% tariffs on most goods) and Japan. A potential new Fed Chairman is speculated, adding uncertainty to monetary policy.
• Economic: Markets are bracing for the July CPI data release on August 12 (Tuesday), with 90% odds of a Fed rate cut implied. Earnings season continues, with positive surprises in AI and tech sectors boosting sentiment, though overall growth is expected to slow to 10.2% for 2025. US yields rose slightly amid inflation watch.
• Geopolitical: Trump and Putin are set to meet in Alaska amid the Ukraine war, raising questions on potential agreements without Ukraine’s involvement, which could impact energy and defense sectors.
• Europe Impacts:
• Political: The EU has agreed to a trade deal with the US imposing 15% tariffs on goods, with commitments to buy US products to avert escalation. This follows similar pacts amid rising trade tensions.
• Economic: Mixed market performance; DAX edged up slightly. Focus on US inflation data spillover, as European Central Bank policies may align with Fed moves. Diversification of trade networks away from US-China dependencies is ongoing, with 6% export growth to Europe from China.
• Geopolitical: Heightened uncertainty from US-Russia talks on Ukraine, potentially affecting energy supplies and NATO dynamics.
• Japan Impacts:
• Political: Japan has secured a trade deal with the US similar to the EU’s, with 15% tariffs and commitments to US goods purchases, amid broader Trump-era tariff pressures.
• Economic: Nikkei surged 1.85% on August 11, but the winning streak may end due to soft global cues ahead of US inflation data. Earnings and export data remain supportive, though trade tensions could weigh on manufacturing.
• Geopolitical: Limited direct involvement, but US-China tensions indirectly affect supply chains, with Japan diversifying amid rising uncertainty.
• China Impacts:
• Political: The US-China tariff truce expires August 12, with China warning of countermeasures against nations siding with US trade pressure. Redirecting exports to Europe and Mexico/Canada amid diversification efforts.
• Economic: Trade data in focus, with potential tariff hikes disrupting growth. Shanghai indices (not detailed in data) likely influenced by global risk aversion. Inflation and policy responses from the People’s Bank of China could counter slowdowns.
• Geopolitical: Broader Western hegemony challenges, with trade wars signaling shifts in global power. China-US relations tense, with no formal extension of the ceasefire yet.
Key Earnings News and Sector Impacts
Earnings reports on August 12 include several notable releases, with mixed results impacting sectors:
• Sea Ltd (SE): Expected pre-market; as a tech/e-commerce firm, strong results could boost digital economy stocks, but high P/E (51.43 vs. industry 36.40) signals valuation risks in tech.
• Cardinal Health (CAH): Healthcare distributor; positive earnings could support healthcare sector amid supply chain focus.
• On Holding (ONON): Consumer goods/sports; impacts retail and consumer discretionary performance.
• Tencent Music (TME): Entertainment/tech; AI-related beats could lift media and tech.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC): Reported Q3 results reaffirming guidance; shares may rise, positively affecting clean energy/renewables sector amid geopolitical energy shifts.
• Other: SoundHound AI soared on Q2 beats (AI/tech boost), while The Trade Desk tanked (adtech pressure). Overall, Q2 earnings have been positive (most beats), supporting tech and energy sectors, but slowing growth forecasts could pressure cyclicals like industrials.
These could drive sector rotations: AI/tech up on innovation, healthcare stable, energy volatile from geopolitics.
• Indices:
• Drivers: US CPI release today could confirm Fed cuts (90% odds), boosting risk assets if soft; tariff escalations may hit globals. Geopolitical talks (US-Russia) add uncertainty.
• US: Dow closed 43,975.89 (-0.45% or -199.72); futures (Sep) 44,076.00 (-0.02%). S&P 500 closed 6,373.51 (-0.25%); futures 6,428.50 (+0.23%). Nasdaq closed 21,385.40 (-0.30%); Nasdaq 100 futures 23,745.75 (+0.13%).
• Europe: DAX closed 27,775.23 (+0.06%); futures 24,148.1 (+0.06%). FTSE not detailed.
• Japan: Nikkei closed 41,820.48 (+1.85%); futures 42,237.5 (-0.10%).
• China: Shanghai not detailed; trade truce end may pressure.
• Bonds:
• Drivers: Inflation data key; higher CPI could push yields up, signaling fewer cuts. Geopolitical risks (Ukraine) favor safe-havens like Treasuries.
• US 10-Year Yield: 4.847 (+0.12% or +0.006). 30-Year: 4.285 (+0.33%). Yields rose slightly, reflecting caution.
• Forex:
• Drivers: Trade wars strengthen USD as safe-haven; China countermeasures could devalue CNY. Fed cuts may weaken USD vs. EUR/JPY.
• Specific rates not detailed in data; broader sentiment: USD strong amid tensions (e.g., USD/CNY sensitive to tariffs).
• Commodities:
• Drivers: Tariff hikes disrupt supply (e.g., copper from China); energy volatile from Ukraine talks. Gold as hedge vs. Bitcoin.
• Gold (Dec): 3,397.40 (-0.21%). Crude Oil WTI (Sep): 64.10 (+0.22%). Silver (Sep): 37.683 (-0.28%). Copper (Nov): 1,011.25 (+0.10%).
• Crypto:
• Drivers: Risk-off from geopolitics/trade; Bitcoin less consistent hedge than gold. Regulatory shifts under Trump could boost if pro-crypto.
• Bitcoin: 118,800.8 (-0.41%). Ethereum: 4,233.79 (-0.39%). Solana: 805.70 (-0.15%).
• Thematic ETFs:
• Drivers: AI/geopolitics remain key (e.g., tech innovation, infrastructure from trade diversification). Clean energy from energy transitions; crypto themes down with prices.
• Specific performance sparse: iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation (THRO) NAV ~$36.48 (+0.75% as of Aug 8; recent). Schwab Crypto Thematic (STCE) -1.62% (as of Aug 7). Broader: AI ETFs may rise on earnings (e.g., SoundHound), infrastructure (e.g., Global X U.S. Infrastructure) from tariff deals, but volatility high.
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