20250713 to 20250719 Weekly Recap and outlook

20250713 to 20250719 Weekly Recap and outlook .

English: Market Recap (July 13–19, 2025) and Outlook

Last Week’s Market Recap

• United States:
• Earnings Season Kicked Off: Major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America reported Q2 earnings, with JPMorgan and Citigroup exceeding expectations. Consumer-facing companies like PepsiCo, United Airlines, and Netflix also beat forecasts, boosting market sentiment.
• Market Performance: The S&P 500 remained flat for the week but has risen 10% over the past year, with expected annual earnings growth of 15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 100 points on Friday after reports of potential 15–20% tariffs on EU imports.
• Economic Indicators: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed the largest monthly increase in five months, matching consensus estimates. Job openings dropped to 7.2 million in March, signaling potential cooling in labor demand.
• Tariff Developments: President Trump announced new tariffs effective August 1 on over 20 countries, including 35% on Canada, 30% on the EU and Mexico, and 25% on Japan, unless trade deals are reached. A 50% tariff on copper imports drove copper prices up 13%.
• Sector Highlights: The industrial sector led US equities, while AI-driven tech stocks, particularly the “Magnificent Seven,” continued to dominate, with expected Q2 growth of 14.8% versus 1.9% for other S&P 500 companies.
• Cryptocurrency Surge: Bitcoin climbed above $118,000, posting a 9% weekly gain.
• Europe:
• Market Gains: European markets rose, with the Stoxx 600 hitting a four-week high on Wednesday, driven by optimism over potential EU-US trade deal resolutions. The MSCI Europe ex UK Index gained 1.6%.
• Economic Sentiment: The ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 52.7 in July, the highest since February 2022, reflecting optimism about potential stimulus and trade dispute resolutions.
• Trade Tensions: Concerns over US tariffs (30% threatened on EU imports) weighed on sentiment, but positive eurozone data and expectations of ECB rate cuts (40% chance in September) supported markets.
• Currency Impact: The euro weakened to USD 1.13, impacting earnings for companies with dollar-denominated revenues.
• Japan:
• Market Performance: The Nikkei 225 rose 0.63%, and the TOPIX Index gained 0.40%, tempered by political uncertainty ahead of the July 20 Upper House election.
• Economic Challenges: Exports fell 0.5% year-on-year in June, missing expectations of a 0.5% increase, due to weaker US and China demand. A 25% US tariff on Japanese imports is set for August 1, though trade talks continue.
• Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan maintained a cautious stance, with the Tokyo-area core CPI at 3.1% (above the 2% target), supporting potential rate hikes. The yen strengthened to JPY 144.7 against the USD.
• China:
• Market Performance: The CSI 300 Index rose 1.09%, the Shanghai Composite gained 0.69%, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 2.84%, supported by stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 5.2%.
• Economic Concerns: Growth is expected to slow in H2 due to deflation pressures, weak retail sales, and a persistent property slump (new home prices fell 0.27% in June). Producer prices dropped significantly, marking 33 months of factory deflation.
• Trade and Policy: China is evaluating trade talks with the US amid tariff threats. The People’s Bank of China signaled a “moderately loose” monetary policy to address deflation and weak demand.

Key Events to Watch Next Week (July 20–26, 2025)

• United States:
• Economic Data: Focus on retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts data, which could signal consumer and economic strength amid tariff uncertainties.
• Trade Policy: Monitor developments in US trade talks with the EU, Japan, Canada, and Mexico, as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches.
• Federal Reserve: Investors will watch for Fed commentary on inflation and potential September rate cuts (60% probability).
• Europe:
• Trade Negotiations: EU engagement with Canada, Japan, and India on trade deals to counter US tariff threats.
• Economic Data: Inflation data and PMI reports will influence expectations for ECB rate cuts.
• Japan:
• Upper House Election: Results on July 20 could impact market sentiment, depending on the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition’s performance and fiscal policy direction.
• Trade Talks: Ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations could affect export-driven sectors.
• China:
• Policy Announcements: Potential stimulus measures to address deflation and housing market weakness.
• Trade Developments: Progress in US-China trade talks could influence market sentiment.

Key Companies’ Earnings Reports to Watch

• United States (July 21–25, 2025):
• Monday, July 21: Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS)
• Tuesday, July 22: Tesla (TSLA), Coca-Cola (KO), General Motors (GM)
• Wednesday, July 23: IBM (IBM), Ford (F), AT&T (T)
• Thursday, July 24: Visa (V), Honeywell (HON), American Airlines (AAL)
• Friday, July 25: 3M (MMM), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
• Note: Earnings dates are tentative and should be confirmed.
• Europe:
• Focus on industrials and chemicals (e.g., BASF, Siemens) for insights into tariff impacts and currency effects.
• Japan and China: No specific companies highlighted in available data, but watch for export-driven firms in Japan and property-related companies in China.

Traditional Chinese: 市場回顧（2025年7月13日至19日）及展望

上週市場回顧

• 美國：
• 財報季開啟：摩根大通、花旗集團、富國銀行和美國銀行等主要銀行公布第二季度財報，摩根大通和花旗超出預期。百事可樂、聯合航空和網飛等消費類公司也表現優於預期，提升市場情緒。
• 市場表現：標普500指數本週持平，但過去一年上漲10%，預計年盈利增長15%。道瓊斯工業平均指數週五下跌逾100點，因有報導稱對歐盟進口商品可能徵收15-20%關稅。
• 經濟指標：消費者價格指數（CPI）顯示五個月來最大月度增幅，符合共識預期。3月職位空缺降至720萬，顯示勞動需求可能降溫。
• 關稅進展：川普總統宣布對超過20個國家自8月1日起實施新關稅，包括加拿大35%、歐盟和墨西哥30%、日本25%，除非達成貿易協議。對銅進口徵收50%關稅推高銅價13%。
• 行業亮點：工業板塊領漲美國股市，人工智能驅動的科技股（尤其是“七巨頭”）持續主導，第二季度預計增長14.8%，而其他標普500公司僅1.9%。
• 加密貨幣飆升：比特幣突破118,000美元，週漲幅約9%。
• 歐洲：
• 市場上漲：歐洲市場上漲，斯托克600指數週三達到四周高點，受歐盟與美國貿易協議解決預期的樂觀情緒推動。MSCI歐洲（不含英國）指數上漲1.6%。
• 經濟信心：7月ZEW經濟信心指數升至52.7，為2022年2月以來最高，反映對潛在刺激措施和貿易爭端解決的樂觀情緒。
• 貿易緊張：對美國威脅對歐盟進口徵收30%關稅的擔憂影響情緒，但正面歐元區數據和歐洲央行降息預期（9月降息機率40%）支撐市場。
• 貨幣影響：歐元兌美元走弱，收於1.13美元，影響以美元計價收入公司的財報。
• 日本：
• 市場表現：日經225指數上漲0.63%，東證指數上漲0.40%，受7月20日參議院選舉前政治不確定性影響。
• 經濟挑戰：6月出口同比下降0.5%，低於預期增長0.5%，因美國和中國需求疲軟。美國對日本進口徵收25%關稅將於8月1日生效，但貿易談判持續進行。
• 貨幣政策：日本銀行維持謹慎立場，東京地區核心CPI為3.1%（高於2%目標），支持進一步加息可能性。日元兌美元升值至144.7。
• 中國：
• 市場表現：中證300指數上漲1.09%，上海綜合指數上漲0.69%，恒生指數上漲2.84%，受第二季度GDP增長5.2%超出預期的支撐。
• 經濟隱憂：預計下半年增長放緩，因通縮壓力、零售銷售疲軟和房地產市場持續低迷（6月新房價格下跌0.27%）。生產者價格大幅下跌，連續33個月工廠通縮。
• 貿易與政策：中國正在評估與美國的貿易談判，應對關稅威脅。人民銀行表示將採取“適度寬鬆”的貨幣政策，以應對通縮和需求疲軟。

下週關注的關鍵事件（2025年7月20日至26日）

• 美國：
• 經濟數據：關注零售銷售、工業生產和住房開工數據，這些數據可能反映關稅不確定性下的消費者和經濟實力。
• 貿易政策：監測美國與歐盟、日本、加拿大和墨西哥的貿易談判進展，因8月1日關稅截止日期即將到來。
• 聯邦儲備：投資者將關注聯儲對通脹和9月降息（60%機率）的評論。
• 歐洲：
• 貿易談判：歐盟與加拿大、日本和印度就貿易協議加強接觸，以應對美國關稅威脅。
• 經濟數據：通脹數據和PMI報告將影響對歐洲央行降息的預期。
• 日本：
• 參議院選舉：7月20日的選舉結果可能影響市場情緒，具體取決於自民黨-公明黨聯盟的表現和財政政策方向。
• 貿易談判：美日貿易談判的進展可能影響出口驅動的行業。
• 中國：
• 政策公告：關注應對通縮和房地產市場疲軟的潛在刺激措施。
• 貿易進展：美中貿易談判的進展可能影響市場情緒。

需關注的關鍵公司財報

• 美國（2025年7月21日至25日）：
• 7月21日（週一）：高盛（GS）、摩根士丹利（MS）
• 7月22日（週二）：特斯拉（TSLA）、可口可樂（KO）、通用汽車（GM）
• 7月23日（週三）：IBM（IBM）、福特（F）、AT&T（T）
• 7月24日（週四）：Visa（V）、霍尼韋爾（HON）、美國航空（AAL）
• 7月25日（週五）：3M（MMM）、百時美施貴寶（BMY）
• 注意：財報日期為暫定，需確認。
• 歐洲：
• 關注工業和化學品公司（如巴斯夫、西門子），了解關稅和貨幣影響的見解。
• 日本和中國：未有具體公司數據，建議關注日本出口驅動型企業和中國房地產相關公司。

Notes

• Sources: The recap leverages data from T. Rowe Price, BlackRock, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, and other sources as cited.
• Critical Considerations: Investors should remain cautious of tariff-related volatility, particularly in export-driven sectors in Japan and Europe, and monitor stimulus measures in China. US earnings will provide insights into consumer strength and AI-driven growth.
• Disclaimer: This summary is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Verify earnings dates and consult primary sources for trade policy updates.

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