What is the GENIUS Act?
The GENIUS Act is a bipartisan legislative effort designed to regulate payment stablecoins—digital currencies backed 1:1 by fiat currency (like the U.S. dollar) or high-quality assets such as U.S. Treasury securities—to ensure their stability and integration into the U.S. financial system. Introduced by Senators Bill Hagerty (R-TN), Tim Scott (R-SC), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), the Act passed the House with a vote of 308-122 and was signed into law by President Donald Trump, who hailed it as a transformative step for financial technology. Key provisions include:
**Definition and Regulation**: Stablecoins are defined as digital assets used for payments or settlements with a fixed monetary value, distinguishing them from volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Issuers must be licensed, either federally for large entities (market cap exceeding $1 billion) under the Federal Reserve’s oversight or at the state level for smaller issuers.
**Reserve Requirements**: Stablecoins must be fully backed by liquid assets like U.S. dollars or Treasury securities to prevent de-pegging incidents, as seen with TerraUSD’s collapse in 2022, which erased nearly half a trillion dollars from crypto markets.[](https://www.moderntreasury.com/journal/regulating-stablecoins-implications-of-the-genius-act)
**Consumer Protections**: Issuers must ensure prompt redemption of stablecoins into fiat currency, undergo regular third-party audits, and comply with anti-money laundering (AML) and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) regulations.[](https://www.moneylaunderingnews.com/2025/03/anti-money-laundering-aspects-of-the-genius-act/)
**Non-Security Classification**: Stablecoins are explicitly not classified as securities, aligning them with a banking-like regulatory framework to encourage innovation while maintaining oversight.[](https://aifundservices.com/genius-act-2025)
**Support for Innovation**: The Act allows banks and non-bank entities to issue stablecoins, fostering competition and reducing reliance on traditional banking intermediaries for settlements.[](https://www.newsweek.com/senate-genius-act-crypto-investments-bitcoin-2075142)
The legislation aims to balance innovation with financial stability, positioning the U.S. as a leader in the $250 billion stablecoin market, which includes major players like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC).[]
(https://www.ainvest.com/news/passes-genius-act-lead-250-billion-dollar-digital-currency-market-2507/)
Impact on Financial Markets
The GENIUS Act is poised to reshape financial markets by legitimizing and mainstreaming stablecoins, which could have both stabilizing and disruptive effects:
1. **Increased Institutional Adoption**:
By providing regulatory clarity, the Act encourages traditional financial institutions, such as banks and firms like Fidelity Investments (already testing its own stablecoin), to enter the stablecoin market. This could drive significant capital inflows into digital assets, boosting market liquidity and stability. Experts suggest this could be a “watershed” moment, integrating crypto into mainstream finance.[](https://www.newsweek.com/senate-genius-act-crypto-investments-bitcoin-2075142)
2. **Potential for Market Volatility**:
While the Act’s reserve requirements aim to mitigate risks, a rapid proliferation of stablecoins could introduce vulnerabilities. If a major issuer mismanages reserves, leading to a stablecoin collapse, it could trigger a broader market panic, potentially impacting U.S. Treasury bond prices as issuers liquidate reserves to cover redemptions. This risk is particularly concerning given stablecoins’ $250 billion market cap and their role in facilitating $27.6 trillion in on-chain settlements in 2024, surpassing Visa and Mastercard combined.[](https://www.wired.com/story/genius-act-congress-crypto-law-passes/)[](https://stanfordreview.org/pass-the-genius-act/)
3. **Boost to U.S. Treasuries**:
Stablecoins backed by Treasury securities could increase demand for U.S. government bonds, potentially lowering borrowing costs for the U.S. government. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has projected that digital assets could generate up to $2 trillion in additional demand for Treasuries, strengthening the U.S. debt market. However, this also ties stablecoin stability to the Treasury market, introducing systemic risks if bond markets face stress.[](https://www.mexc.com/learn/article/17827791524496)
4. **Innovation in Financial Products**: The Act allows stablecoin issuers to offer interest on holdings, fostering new financial products and potentially attracting yield-seeking investors. This could reshape fixed-income investing, with tokenized Treasuries and on-chain protocols altering traditional risk-return profiles.[](https://www.mexc.com/learn/article/17827791524496)
### Impact on the U.S. Dollar’s Global Position
Proponents of the GENIUS Act argue it will reinforce the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency, while critics highlight potential risks:
- **Strengthening Dollar Hegemony**: By tying stablecoins to the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities, the Act extends the dollar’s reach into the digital economy. Stablecoins facilitate faster, cheaper cross-border transactions, increasing dollar usage in emerging markets like Africa and Latin America, where transaction volumes grew by 400% and 300%, respectively, in 2024. This could erode the market share of traditional systems like SWIFT, cementing the dollar’s role in global payments.[](https://www.mexc.com/learn/article/17827791524496)
- **Countering Global Competition**: The Act positions the U.S. to compete with jurisdictions like the EU (with its MiCA framework) and Singapore, which have already implemented stablecoin regulations. By establishing a clear framework, the U.S. aims to attract issuers and engineering talent, preventing capital flight to foreign hubs and reinforcing its financial leadership.[](https://aifundservices.com/genius-act-2025)[](https://stanfordreview.org/pass-the-genius-act/)
- **Risks to Monetary Sovereignty**: Critics warn that widespread stablecoin adoption in emerging markets could undermine local monetary policies, as countries like El Salvador have already adopted cryptocurrencies as legal tender. Central banks may struggle to compete with stablecoins’ instant settlement features, potentially necessitating costly central bank digital currency (CBDC) development.[](https://www.mexc.com/learn/article/17827791524496)
Impact on M2 Money Supply
The M2 money supply, which includes cash, checking deposits, savings accounts, and other short-term liquid assets, could be indirectly affected by the GENIUS Act, though the extent is uncertain:
- Potential Increase in M2**:
Stablecoins, while not directly counted in M2, are backed by liquid assets like cash and Treasury securities held in bank deposits, which are part of M2. As stablecoin issuance grows, issuers’ reserve holdings could inflate M2, especially if banks lend against these deposits, amplifying the money multiplier effect. For context, M2 grew from $15.3 trillion in February 2020 to $22 trillion by March 2025, with significant jumps during expansionary monetary policies.[](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp)[](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2)
- **Monetary Policy Implications**:
An increase in M2 could fuel inflationary pressures if not offset by productivity gains, as historical data shows a correlation between M2 growth and inflation. However, the Federal Reserve’s tools, such as interest rate adjustments and quantitative tightening, could mitigate this. The Act’s regulatory oversight ensures stablecoin reserves are not rehypothecated, limiting excessive money creation.[](https://www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trading-lessons/money-supply-m2/)[](https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/)
- **Uncertainty in Measurement**:
Stablecoins blur the line between traditional money and digital assets, complicating M2 measurement. The Federal Reserve may need to adapt its monetary aggregates to account for stablecoin-backed deposits, as seen when savings deposits were reclassified from M2 to M1 in 2020.[](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp)
### Impact on Forex, Imports, and Exports
The GENIUS Act could influence forex markets and international trade through stablecoin adoption:
- **Forex Market Dynamics**: Stablecoins pegged to the dollar reduce exchange rate volatility for dollar-based transactions, potentially stabilizing forex markets. However, increased dollar demand via stablecoins could strengthen the dollar, making U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper, potentially widening the trade deficit. In 2024, stablecoins already facilitated significant cross-border payments, particularly in high-frequency, small-value transactions.[](https://www.mexc.com/learn/article/17827791524496)
- **Impact on Imports and Exports**: Stablecoins’ low-cost, instant settlement features could boost U.S. exports by simplifying payments for international buyers, especially in emerging markets. Conversely, a stronger dollar could reduce export competitiveness, particularly for industries like manufacturing. Importers may benefit from cheaper foreign goods, but this could exacerbate trade imbalances.[](https://www.moderntreasury.com/journal/regulating-stablecoins-implications-of-the-genius-act)
- **Global Trade Efficiency**: By reducing reliance on intermediaries like banks and SWIFT, stablecoins could lower transaction costs, benefiting both importers and exporters. However, regulatory compliance (e.g., AML checks) may introduce frictional costs, offsetting some efficiency gains.[](https://www.moneylaunderingnews.com/2025/03/anti-money-laundering-aspects-of-the-genius-act/)
### Critical Considerations for Clients
For investors, the GENIUS Act presents opportunities and risks:
- **Opportunities**:
Clients can explore investments in stablecoin issuers, blockchain infrastructure, or Treasury securities, which may see increased demand. Stablecoin-related financial products, such as yield-bearing accounts, could offer attractive returns in a low-risk framework.[](https://aifundservices.com/genius-act-2025)
- **Risks**: Potential stablecoin collapses, regulatory overreach, or geopolitical pushback (e.g., CBDC development by other nations) could disrupt markets. Clients should diversify exposure and monitor Treasury market dynamics, given their linkage to stablecoin reserves.[](https://www.wired.com/story/genius-act-congress-crypto-law-passes/)
- **Strategic Positioning**: Investors should assess stablecoin adoption in emerging markets and its impact on dollar strength, adjusting forex and trade-related portfolios accordingly.
Conclusion
The GENIUS Act is a landmark step toward integrating stablecoins into the U.S. financial system, with far-reaching implications for financial markets, the dollar’s global dominance, M2 money supply, and international trade. While it promises to enhance innovation, protect consumers, and extend dollar hegemony, it also introduces risks of market instability and challenges to monetary policy. As investment managers, we must guide clients to capitalize on opportunities in this evolving landscape while remaining vigilant about systemic risks. Monitoring Federal Reserve actions, Treasury market trends, and global regulatory developments will be crucial to navigating this new era of digital finance.[](https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1946336515186925710)[](https://www.ainvest.com/news/passes-genius-act-lead-250-billion-dollar-digital-currency-market-2507/)
### 《GENIUS Act》是什麼？
《GENIUS Act》是一項兩黨合作的立法，旨在規範支付穩定幣——一種與穩定價值（通常是美元）掛鉤的數位資產，以確保其穩定性並融入美國金融系統。該法案由參議員比爾·哈格蒂（Bill Hagerty）、蒂姆·斯科特（Tim Scott）、柯爾斯滕·吉利布蘭德（Kirsten Gillibrand）和辛西婭·盧米斯（Cynthia Lummis）提出，以308比122票在眾議院通過，並於2025年7月19日由總統唐納德·特朗普簽署成為法律。特朗普稱其為金融科技的變革性一步。主要內容包括：
- **定義與監管**：穩定幣被定義為用於支付或結算的數位資產，具有固定的貨幣價值，與比特幣等波動性加密貨幣區分開來。發行人必須獲得許可證，大型發行人（市值超過10億美元）由聯邦儲備系統監管，小型發行人則由州級監管。
- **儲備要求**：穩定幣必須由美元或美國國債等高流動性資產全額支持，以防止像2022年TerraUSD崩盤時損失近5000億美元的脫鉤事件。
- **消費者保護**：發行人必須確保穩定幣可迅速兌換為法定貨幣，接受第三方定期審計，並遵守反洗錢（AML）和《銀行保密法》（BSA）規定。
- **非證券分類**：穩定幣明確不被分類為證券，採用類似銀行的監管框架，以鼓勵創新並保持監管。
- **支持創新**：該法案允許銀行和非銀行實體發行穩定幣，促進競爭並減少對傳統銀行中介的依賴。
該法案旨在平衡創新與金融穩定，將美國定位為2500億美元穩定幣市場的領導者，涵蓋如Tether（USDT）和USD Coin（USDC）等主要參與者。
### 對金融市場的影響
《GENIUS Act》將通過合法化和主流化穩定幣，重塑金融市場，可能帶來穩定與顛覆的雙重效應：
1. **機構採用增加**：通過提供監管明確性，該法案鼓勵傳統金融機構（如銀行和富達投資等公司，後者已在測試自有穩定幣）進入穩定幣市場。這可能推動大量資金流入數位資產，提升市場流動性和穩定性。專家認為這可能是將加密貨幣融入主流金融的“分水嶺”時刻。
2. **市場波動風險**：雖然儲備要求旨在降低風險，但穩定幣的快速擴張可能引入脆弱性。若主要發行人管理不善儲備，導致穩定幣崩盤，可能引發更廣泛的市場恐慌，甚至影響美國國債價格，因發行人可能清算儲備以應對贖回。考慮到2024年穩定幣市值達2500億美元，且鏈上結算交易額達27.6萬億美元，超過Visa和Mastercard總和，這一風險尤為顯著。
3. **美國國債需求提升**：以國債支持的穩定幣可能增加對美國政府債券的需求，降低政府借貸成本。財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）預計，數位資產可能為國債市場帶來高達2萬億美元的額外需求，增強美國債券市場。然而，這也將穩定幣的穩定性與國債市場捆綁，若債券市場承壓，可能引發系統性風險。
4. **金融產品創新**：該法案允許穩定幣發行人提供持有利息，促進新型金融產品的發展，可能吸引尋求收益的投資者。這可能重塑固定收益投資，通過代幣化國債和鏈上協議改變傳統的風險回報結構。
### 對美元全球地位的影響
支持者認為《GENIUS Act》將鞏固美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位，而批評者則指出潛在風險：
- **強化美元霸權**：通過將穩定幣與美元和國債掛鉤，該法案將美元的影響力擴展至數位經濟。穩定幣促進更快、更便宜的跨境交易，增加美元在非洲和拉丁美洲等新興市場的使用，2024年這些地區的交易量分別增長400%和300%。這可能侵蝕SWIFT等傳統系統的市場份額，鞏固美元在全球支付中的角色。
- **應對全球競爭**：該法案使美國能夠與已實施穩定幣監管的歐盟（MiCA框架）和新加坡競爭。通過建立清晰的框架，美國旨在吸引發行人和工程人才，防止資本外流至海外金融中心，強化其金融領導地位。
- **貨幣主權風險**：批評者警告，穩定幣在新興市場的廣泛採用可能削弱當地貨幣政策，如薩爾瓦多已將加密貨幣作為法定貨幣。中央銀行可能難以與穩定幣的即時結算功能競爭，可能需要開發成本高昂的中央銀行數位貨幣（CBDC）。
### 對M2貨幣供應量的影響
M2貨幣供應量（包括現金、支票存款、儲蓄存款和其他短期流動資產）可能因《GENIUS Act》間接受到影響，但程度尚不明確：
- **M2可能增加**：穩定幣雖未直接計入M2，但其儲備由銀行存款中的現金和國債等流動資產支持，這些屬於M2。隨著穩定幣發行增長，發行人的儲備持有可能推高M2，尤其是若銀行對這些存款放貸，放大貨幣乘數效應。2020年2月至2025年3月，M2從15.3萬億美元增長至22萬億美元，貨幣擴張政策期間尤為顯著。
- **貨幣政策影響**：M2增加可能加劇通脹壓力，若無生產力提升抵消，歷史數據顯示M2增長與通脹相關。然而，聯邦儲備的利率調整和量化緊縮工具可緩解這一問題。該法案的監管確保穩定幣儲備不被再抵押，限制過度貨幣創造。
- **測量不確定性**：穩定幣模糊了傳統貨幣與數位資產的界限，複雜化M2測量。聯邦儲備可能需調整貨幣總量定義，如2020年將儲蓄存款從M2重新分類至M1。
### 對外匯、進口和出口的影響
《GENIUS Act》可能通過穩定幣採用影響外匯市場和國際貿易：
- **外匯市場動態**：與美元掛鉤的穩定幣減少美元交易的匯率波動，可能穩定外匯市場。然而，穩定幣增加的美元需求可能推高美元匯率，使美國出口更昂貴，進口更便宜，可能擴大貿易逆差。2024年，穩定幣已在高頻小額跨境支付中發揮重要作用。
- **進出口影響**：穩定幣的低成本、即時結算功能可簡化國際買家的支付，促進美國出口，尤其在新興市場。然而，美元走強可能降低製造業等行業的出口競爭力。進口商可能因外國商品價格降低而受益，但這可能加劇貿易失衡。
- **全球貿易效率**：穩定幣減少對銀行和SWIFT等中介的依賴，可降低交易成本，惠及進出口商。然而，監管合規（如反洗錢檢查）可能增加摩擦成本，抵消部分效率提升。
### 對客戶的關鍵建議
對投資者而言，《GENIUS Act》帶來機遇與風險：
- **機遇**：客戶可探索穩定幣發行人、區塊鏈基礎設施或國債的投資機會，後者可能因需求增加而受益。穩定幣相關金融產品（如有息帳戶）可在低風險框架內提供吸引力收益。
- **風險**：穩定幣崩盤、監管過度或地緣政治阻力（如其他國家開發CBDC）可能擾亂市場。客戶應分散投資，並監控國債市場動態，因其與穩定幣儲備相關。
- **策略定位**：投資者應評估穩定幣在新興市場的採用及其對美元強度的影響，相應調整外匯和貿易相關投資組合。
### 結論
《GENIUS Act》是將穩定幣融入美國金融系統的里程碑，對金融市場、美元全球地位、M2貨幣供應量和國際貿易產生深遠影響。雖然它承諾促進創新、保護消費者並擴展美元霸權，但也帶來市場不穩定和貨幣政策挑戰的風險。作為投資經理，我們必須引導客戶抓住這一變革景觀中的機遇，同時保持對系統性風險的警惕。監控聯邦儲備行動、國債市場趨勢和全球監管發展將是應對數位金融新時代的關鍵。
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