GOOGL & TESLA AFTER EARNING ,SO ?

 GOOGLE Weekly 

Google Daily 

Alphabet (GOOGL)Key Points from Latest 10-Q (Q2 2025, ending June 30, 2025)

• Revenue Growth: Alphabet reported strong revenue growth, particularly in its cloud and advertising segments. Google Cloud showed notable growth, driven by increased demand for AI-related services, while ad revenue, particularly from YouTube and Search, remained robust.
• AI Investments: Significant capital expenditures (capex) were directed toward AI infrastructure, including data centers and AI model development, to support generative AI and cloud services.
• Operating Margins: Margins faced pressure due to high AI-related capex, but the core ad business continued to deliver strong profitability.
• Antitrust Concerns: Alphabet is navigating legal challenges, including antitrust cases related to its dominance in search and advertising. These could lead to potential business restructuring or fines.

Key Threats

1. AI Competition: Emerging AI-driven search alternatives (e.g., OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude) threaten Google’s dominance in search, potentially reducing click-through ad revenue.
2. Regulatory Risks: Ongoing antitrust lawsuits, including potential Department of Justice (DOJ) actions, could force a breakup of Alphabet’s business units or impose restrictions on its ad practices.
3. Macro Slowdown: A potential economic downturn, exacerbated by trade policies or tariffs, could weaken digital ad demand, impacting Alphabet’s core revenue stream.
4. AI Monetization Uncertainty: Alphabet’s ability to profit from AI overviews in search results remains unproven, posing risks to future revenue streams.

Key Opportunities

1. Cloud Growth: Google Cloud’s growth trajectory, fueled by AI and machine learning services, positions Alphabet to capture a larger share of the cloud computing market.
2. AI Leadership: Alphabet’s investments in generative AI and large language models could strengthen its competitive edge in search, cloud, and new product areas like Waymo (autonomous vehicles).
3. YouTube Expansion: YouTube’s growing subscriber base and ad revenue potential provide a diversified revenue stream.
4. Global Scale: Alphabet’s scale and infrastructure make it resilient against competitive and regulatory pressures compared to smaller players.

Valuation Pricing ModelTo value Alphabet, a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is appropriate, given its stable cash flows and diversified revenue streams. Key assumptions based on the 10-Q and 10-K:

• Revenue Growth: Assume 10-12% annual revenue growth for the next 5 years, driven by cloud and ad revenue, moderating to 6-8% thereafter.
• Operating Margin: 25-28% over the next 5 years, reflecting AI capex pressures but strong ad profitability.
• Discount Rate (WACC): 8-9%, reflecting Alphabet’s low-risk profile and strong balance sheet.
• Free Cash Flow (FCF): Based on Q2 2025, Alphabet’s FCF is robust, with estimates of $80-90 billion annually over the next few years, adjusted for AI capex.
• Terminal Growth Rate: 3%, aligned with global GDP growth.

Valuation Estimate: Using a DCF model, Alphabet’s intrinsic value per share is approximately $150-$170, assuming 5.8 billion diluted shares outstanding (based on recent filings). This is close to its current trading range (as of July 2025, ~$160-$180 based on market data). The stock appears fairly valued, with upside potential if cloud growth exceeds expectations or regulatory risks subside.
TESLA WEEKLY 

TESLA DAILY 

Tesla (TSLA)Key Points from Latest 10-Q (Q3 2024, ending September 30, 2024) and 10-K (2024, ending December 31, 2024)

• Revenue: Q3 2024 revenue was $25.18 billion, slightly below expectations ($25.64 billion), with a year-over-year decline due to lower regulatory credit sales ($439 million vs. $890 million in Q3 2023). Full-year 2024 revenue was $97.69 billion, up slightly from $96.77 billion in 2023.
• Earnings: Q3 2024 adjusted EPS was $0.72 (non-GAAP), beating estimates ($0.58), but GAAP EPS was $0.62. Full-year 2024 GAAP net income was $7.09 billion, down from $14.99 billion in 2023, impacted by a one-time tax benefit in 2023.
• Margins: Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 18.5% in Q3 2024 from 14.4% in Q2 2024, reflecting cost-cutting efforts. However, gross margins remain under pressure due to pricing competition and lower regulatory credit revenue.
• Product Developments: Tesla is advancing its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, Cybercab robotaxi, and energy storage products (Powerwall, Megapack). The Cybertruck and Tesla Semi are in early production, with plans for expansion.
• Capex: Capital expenditures for 2024 reached $11.34 billion, driven by investments in AI, FSD, and manufacturing capacity.

Key Threats

1. Declining Deliveries: Year-over-year vehicle deliveries declined, reflecting weaker demand and competition in the EV market.
2. Regulatory Credit Decline: The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) has reduced regulatory credit revenue, a key profitability driver.
3. Competition: Intensifying competition from Chinese EV makers (e.g., BYD) and other autonomous vehicle players like Waymo threatens Tesla’s market share.
4. Economic Sensitivity: Tesla’s sales are cyclical, and an economic downturn or tariffs could further dampen demand.
5. Execution Risks: High capex on FSD, robotaxis, and Optimus humanoid robots carries execution risks, with no guaranteed near-term revenue.

Key Opportunities

1. Autonomous Driving: Tesla’s FSD and Cybercab robotaxi initiatives could unlock significant revenue if successful, with potential to disrupt the ride-hailing industry.
2. Energy Storage: Powerwall and Megapack sales are growing, leveraging Tesla’s battery technology expertise to capture demand in renewable energy markets.
3. Global Expansion: Tesla’s investments in new markets and production facilities (e.g., Shanghai, Berlin) position it for long-term growth.
4. AI Integration: Tesla’s AI advancements, including potential synergies with xAI, could enhance vehicle and robotaxi capabilities.
5. Low-Cost Vehicle: A future entry-level vehicle could boost volumes and margins, addressing a missed opportunity from prior years.

Valuation Pricing ModelFor Tesla, a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation is suitable, given its diverse business segments (automotive, energy, AI/robotics). Key assumptions based on the 10-Q and 10-K:

• Automotive Segment:
  • Revenue growth: 5-7% annually for 5 years, reflecting delivery challenges but long-term EV adoption.
  • EBITDA margin: 15-18%, constrained by competition and pricing pressures.
  • Valuation: 8x EV/EBITDA multiple, yielding ~$600 billion.
• Energy Storage:
  • Revenue growth: 20-25% annually, driven by Powerwall/Megapack demand.
  • EBITDA margin: 20-22%.
  • Valuation: 12x EV/EBITDA multiple, yielding ~$100 billion.
• Autonomous Driving/Robotaxi:
  • Revenue potential: $0 in 2025, but $10-20 billion by 2030 if successful.
  • Valuation: High-risk speculative value of $200-$300 billion, discounted heavily due to execution risks.
• Discount Rate: 10-11%, reflecting Tesla’s higher risk profile.
• Shares Outstanding: ~3.5 billion (diluted, per 10-Q).

Valuation Estimate: The SOTP model suggests an intrinsic value of $250-$300 per share, with automotive as the core driver and speculative upside from robotaxis. As of July 2025, Tesla’s stock price (~$200-$250 based on market data) suggests it is trading slightly below intrinsic value, but the high valuation depends on successful execution of FSD and robotaxis.

Comparative Threats and OpportunitiesSimilar Threats:

• AI and Regulatory Pressures: Both companies face AI-related competitive threats (Alphabet in search, Tesla in autonomous driving) and regulatory scrutiny (antitrust for Alphabet, EV incentives for Tesla).
• Macroeconomic Risks: Both are exposed to economic downturns, with Alphabet’s ad revenue and Tesla’s vehicle sales sensitive to consumer spending.

Divergent Opportunities:

• Alphabet’s opportunities lie in its diversified portfolio (cloud, YouTube, AI), offering stability. Tesla’s opportunities are more speculative, tied to disruptive technologies like FSD and robotaxis, with higher risk but greater potential upside.

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Conclusion

• Alphabet (GOOGL): The Q2 2025 10-Q highlights strong cloud and ad revenue growth, but AI competition and antitrust risks loom. The DCF valuation ($150-$170) suggests the stock is fairly valued, with upside from cloud and AI leadership. Investors should monitor regulatory developments and AI monetization progress.
• Tesla (TSLA): The Q3 2024 10-Q and 2024 10-K show revenue challenges from declining deliveries and regulatory credits, but improving margins and AI investments offer hope. The SOTP valuation ($250-$300) indicates modest upside, heavily reliant on FSD and robotaxi success. Investors should weigh execution risks against long-term potential.