Weekly Recap 20250706 & Next Week

Market News Recap (June 30–July 5, 2025)

United States

• Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached record highs, with the S&P 500 up 4.96% in June, driven by a strong June jobs report (147,000 nonfarm payrolls vs. 110,000 expected) and a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal. The Dow rose 344 points to 44,828 on July 4. Volatility remains due to tariff uncertainties.
• Tariff Developments: The 90-day tariff pause expires July 9, with threats of 17% tariffs on EU agricultural exports and restrictions on AI chip shipments to Malaysia and Thailand to curb China smuggling. The U.S.-Vietnam deal sets a precedent for potential Chinese tariffs.
• Legislative Moves: The “One Big Beautiful Bill” act and a Senate-passed tax/spending bill could add $3.3 trillion to deficits, pushing Treasury yields higher and pressuring bonds.
• Economic Indicators: The Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%–4.5%, with no immediate rate cut signals from Fed Chair Powell. Markets price in a 50% chance of three quarter-point cuts by year-end. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0, still in contraction, while Services PMI fell to 49.9.
• Crypto Developments: Texas launched a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve with a $10M investment, boosting crypto sentiment. Bitcoin rose 4.2% in June to $108,396.60, while Ethereum slipped 0.9% to $2,502.67.
• Forex Performance: The U.S. dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index (DXA) continuing its downward trend, marking its worst yearly start since 2005. This was driven by rate cut expectations and trade uncertainties. The dollar fell against the euro and pound but held some safe-haven appeal.
• Commodity Performance: The Bloomberg Commodity Index surged mid-week, with WTI crude oil up 7.9% to $66.30 and Brent crude up 6% to $68.15, driven by a modest risk premium from Iran’s U.N. nuclear watchdog suspension. Gold rose 0.4% to $308.43 (GLD ETF), supported by a weaker dollar and fiscal concerns.
• Key Thematic Performance: Technology stocks led with a 10.3% gain in May, though valuations are now near fair value. Communication services (up 9.59%) and consumer cyclical (up 8.86%) sectors outperformed, with Meta and Alphabet offering value. Trade optimism and tariff-related rotations drove risk-on sentiment, though volatility persists.

Europe

• Market Performance: The STOXX 600 rose 0.2% on June 30, supported by U.S. trade talk progress and a weaker dollar. However, the index faces a monthly decline. Euro-denominated assets gained traction amid global portfolio shifts.
• Trade and Investment Trends: Investors favor Europe for stability, with German firms reducing U.S. investments (€2.38 billion net outflow in April). Infrastructure and defense sectors are attractive.
• Economic Outlook: Strong labor markets and rising real wages bolster resilience, but tariff risks and euro appreciation pose challenges. The ECB noted cautious optimism.
• Policy Developments: Spain’s Carlos Cuerpo is a candidate for Eurogroup presidency. Upcoming German and Italian CPI data are key for ECB policy expectations.
• Forex Performance: The euro was among the strongest majors, hitting yearly highs against the dollar due to dovish ECB signals and risk-on flows. The pound also strengthened but faced pressure from U.K. political concerns.
• Commodity Performance: European commodity markets saw mixed results. Energy prices rose (energy index up 9.7% in June), driven by an 11.3% crude oil surge. Non-energy prices eased 1.1%, with food down 1.4% and beverages down 8.2%. Metals and precious metals gained 1.7% and 2.6%, respectively.
• Key Thematic Performance: Infrastructure and defense sectors outperformed due to increased EU spending. Geopolitical stability and trade talk progress supported risk assets, though tariff risks linger.

Japan

• Market Performance: The Nikkei surged 6.64% in June, with three consecutive days of 1.5% gains, fueled by trade talk optimism with the U.S.
• Economic Indicators: Inflation fell to 3.5% in May, the lowest since November. Household spending rose significantly, but housing starts dropped 34.4% year-over-year.
• Trade and Policy: Japan extended U.S. trade talks to avoid 30%–35% tariffs. China lifted its ban on Japanese seafood, boosting trade sentiment.
• Corporate Trends: Wage hikes of 5.25% (highest in 34 years) and Toyota’s planned 9.4% output increase signal domestic strength.
• Forex Performance: The Japanese yen was among the weakest majors, lagging due to the Bank of Japan’s unchanged 0.50% rate and low yield differentials. USD/JPY remained range-bound, awaiting trade policy clarity.
• Commodity Performance: Japan’s commodity markets benefited from a weaker yen and China’s demand. Gold and metals saw gains, supported by global trends, while oil prices aligned with global increases (WTI and Brent).
• Key Thematic Performance: Export-oriented sectors, particularly autos and tech, drove gains amid trade optimism. Wage growth supported consumer discretionary stocks, but tariff risks remain a concern.

China

• Market Performance: The Shanghai index rose 2.9% in June, supported by a weaker dollar and U.S. trade deal optimism. However, manufacturing contracted for the third month, signaling economic weakness.
• Trade Tensions: Anti-dumping duties on European brandy escalated EU trade frictions. The U.S.-Vietnam deal signals potential tariff pressures on China.
• Economic Indicators: Unemployment dropped to 5% in May from 5.1%. The PBOC injected CNY332 billion via reverse repos to stabilize markets.
• Geopolitical Factors: Extreme weather disrupted economic activity. A U.S. framework trade agreement boosted sentiment, but mixed data tempers optimism.
• Forex Performance: The yuan strengthened slightly due to a weaker dollar and trade talk progress. Commodity currencies (e.g., AUD) benefited from China’s commodity demand, though risks remain if economic data worsens.
• Commodity Performance: Metals and agriculture prices rose, supported by China’s stockpiling strategy. Oil prices followed global trends (Brent at $68.15), but demand concerns persist due to manufacturing weakness.
• Key Thematic Performance: Commodity-linked sectors (e.g., metals, agriculture) outperformed due to stockpiling policies. Trade-sensitive equities faced volatility, with investor focus on PBOC stimulus measures.

Key Events to Watch Next Week (July 7–13, 2025)

• U.S. Tariff Deadline (July 9): The tariff pause expiration could trigger 17% tariffs on EU agricultural exports and 30%–35% on Japan, impacting forex (USD, EUR, JPY), commodities (agriculture, oil), and trade-sensitive sectors.
• FOMC Minutes (July 9): Insights into rate cut plans and tariff impacts could move the USD and Treasury yields, affecting risk assets and commodities.
• U.S. Earnings Season Kickoff: Q2 earnings (5% S&P 500 growth expected) could influence tech and consumer cyclical sectors, driving market volatility.
• OPEC+ Meeting (July 6): A potential 411,000 bpd oil output increase could depress oil prices, impacting commodity currencies (CAD, AUD) and energy stocks.
• European Economic Data: German and Italian CPI releases may guide ECB policy, affecting the euro and European bond yields.
• China’s Economic Indicators: Continued manufacturing contraction and weather disruptions could weaken commodity demand, pressuring the yuan and AUD.
• Geopolitical Developments: Israel-Iran ceasefire fragility and U.S. trade talks with Canada, the EU, Japan, and India could drive volatility in forex, commodities, and risk assets.

Investment Considerations

• U.S.: Monitor USD weakness and tariff outcomes. Gold and crypto offer hedges against fiscal concerns, while tech valuations warrant caution.
• Europe: Euro strength and infrastructure/defense sectors are attractive, but hedge against tariff risks. Monitor CPI data for ECB signals.
• Japan: Yen weakness supports exporters, but tariff risks loom. Focus on consumer discretionary and autos, with commodity exposure as a hedge.
• China: Yuan and commodity currencies face downside risks from economic slowdown. Metals and agriculture offer selective opportunities.

市場新聞回顧（2025年6月30日–7月5日）美國

• 股市表現：標準普爾500指數和納斯達克綜合指數創歷史新高，6月標準普爾500指數上漲4.96%，受強勁的6月就業報告（非農就業新增14.7萬，預期11萬）和美越貿易協定推動。道瓊斯指數7月4日上漲344點至44,828點。關稅不確定性導致市場波動。
• 關稅進展：90天關稅暫停於7月9日到期，威脅對歐盟農產品徵收17%關稅，並限制對馬來西亞和泰國的AI晶片出口以遏制中國走私。美越貿易協定為對中國可能的關稅設置先例。
• 立法動態：「One Big Beautiful Bill」法案及參議院通過的稅收/支出法案可能使赤字增加3.3兆美元，推高美國國債收益率，對債券造成壓力。
• 經濟指標：聯邦儲備系統維持利率在4.25%–4.5%，聯儲會主席鮑威爾未釋放立即降息信號。市場預計年底前有50%機率降息三次，每次25個基點。ISM製造業PMI升至49.0，仍處於收縮區間，服務業PMI降至49.9。
• 加密貨幣發展：德州啟動比特幣戰略儲備，投資1000萬美元，提振加密貨幣市場情緒。比特幣6月上漲4.2%至108,396.60美元，以太坊下跌0.9%至2,502.67美元。
• 外匯表現：美元走弱，美元指數（DXA）持續下跌，創2005年以來最差年度開局，受降息預期和貿易不確定性推動。美元兌歐元和英鎊下跌，但仍具避險吸引力。
• 商品表現：彭博商品指數本週中段飆升，WTI原油上漲7.9%至66.30美元，布倫特原油上漲6%至68.15美元，受伊朗暫停聯合國核監督機構引發的風險溢價推動。黃金（GLD ETF）上漲0.4%至308.43美元，受美元走弱和財政擔憂支撐。
• 關鍵主題表現：科技股5月上漲10.3%，但估值接近公允價值。通訊服務（上漲9.59%）和消費週期性（上漲8.86%）表現優異，Meta和Alphabet具價值。貿易樂觀情緒和關稅相關輪動推動風險偏好，但波動持續。

歐洲

• 市場表現：STOXX 600指數6月30日上漲0.2%，受美國貿易談判進展和美元走弱支撐，但該指數面臨月度下跌。歐元計價資產因全球投資組合轉移而受到青睞。
• 貿易與投資趨勢：投資者青睞歐洲的穩定性，德國企業減少對美投資（4月淨流出23.8億歐元）。基礎設施和國防部門具吸引力。
• 經濟展望：強勁的勞動市場和實際工資上漲增強韌性，但關稅風險和歐元升值構成挑戰。歐洲央行表示審慎樂觀。
• 政策進展：西班牙的Carlos Cuerpo為歐元集團主席候選人。德國和意大利即將發布的CPI數據對歐洲央行政策預期至關重要。
• 外匯表現：歐元表現強勁，兌美元創年度新高，受歐洲央行鴿派信號和風險偏好資金流入推動。英鎊也走強，但受英國政治擔憂影響。
• 商品表現：歐洲商品市場表現不一。能源價格上漲（6月能源指數上漲9.7%），受原油上漲11.3%推動。非能源價格下跌1.1%，食品下跌1.4%，飲料下跌8.2%。金屬和貴金屬分別上漲1.7%和2.6%。
• 關鍵主題表現：基礎設施和國防部門因歐盟支出增加表現優異。地緣政治穩定和貿易談判進展支撐風險資產，但關稅風險依然存在。

日本

• 市場表現：日經指數6月上漲6.64%，連續三天單日上漲1.5%，受與美國的貿易談判樂觀情緒推動。
• 經濟指標：5月通脹率降至3.5%，為11月以來最低。家庭支出顯著增加，但住宅開工年減34.4%。
• 貿易與政策：日本延長與美國的貿易談判以避免30%–35%的關稅。中國解除對日本海鮮的禁令，提振貿易情緒。
• 企業趨勢：工資上漲5.25%（34年來最高），豐田計劃產量增加9.4%，顯示國內實力。
• 外匯表現：日元表現疲弱，因日本銀行維持0.50%利率不變及低收益率差異。美元/日元保持區間震盪，等待貿易政策明確。
• 商品表現：日本商品市場受益於日元走弱和中國需求。黃金和金屬受全球趨勢支撐，油價與全球上漲（WTI和布倫特）一致。
• 關鍵主題表現：出口導向部門（尤其是汽車和科技）因貿易樂觀情緒上漲。工資增長支撐消費品類股，但關稅風險仍需關注。

中國

• 市場表現：上海指數6月上漲2.9%，受美元走弱和美國貿易協定樂觀情緒支撐。但製造業連續第三個月收縮，顯示經濟疲弱。
• 貿易緊張：對歐洲白蘭地徵收反傾銷稅加劇與歐盟的貿易摩擦。美越貿易協定預示對中國的潛在關稅壓力。
• 經濟指標：5月失業率從5.1%降至5%。人民銀行通過逆回購注入3320億元人民幣以穩定市場。
• 地緣政治因素：極端天氣擾亂經濟活動。美國框架貿易協定提振情緒，但數據好壞參半限制樂觀情緒。
• 外匯表現：人民幣因美元走弱和貿易談判進展略有升值。商品貨幣（例如澳元）受益於中國的商品需求，但若經濟數據惡化，風險仍存。
• 商品表現：金屬和農產品價格上漲，受中國囤貨策略支撐。油價跟隨全球趨勢（布倫特68.15美元），但製造業疲弱引發需求擔憂。
• 關鍵主題表現：與商品相關的部門（金屬、農業）因囤貨政策表現優異。貿易敏感股票波動較大，投資者聚焦人民銀行刺激措施。

下週關鍵事件（2025年7月7日–13日）

• 美國關稅期限（7月9日）：關稅暫停到期可能對歐盟農產品徵收17%關稅，對日本徵收30%–35%，影響外匯（美元、歐元、日元）、商品（農業、石油）和貿易敏感部門。
• FOMC會議紀要（7月9日）：降息計劃和關稅影響的見解可能影響美元和國債收益率，影響風險資產和商品。
• 美國財報季開啟：第二季財報（預計標準普爾500增長5%）可能影響科技和消費週期性部門，引發市場波動。
• OPEC+會議（7月6日）：潛在增加41.1萬桶/日石油產量可能壓低油價，影響商品貨幣（加元、澳元）和能源股。
• 歐洲經濟數據：德國和意大利CPI發布可能指引歐洲央行政策，影響歐元和歐洲債券收益率。
• 中國經濟指標：製造業持續收縮和天氣干擾可能削弱商品需求，壓低人民幣和澳元。
• 地緣政治發展：以色列-伊朗停火脆弱性及美國與加拿大、歐盟、日本、印度的貿易談判可能引發外匯、商品和風險資產的波動。

投資考量

• 美國：監控美元走弱和關稅結果。黃金和加密貨幣可對沖財政擔憂，科技股估值需謹慎。
• 歐洲：歐元強勢及基礎設施/國防部門具吸引力，但需對沖關稅風險。關注CPI數據以獲取歐洲央行信號。
• 日本：日元走弱支撐出口商，但關稅風險存在。聚焦消費品和汽車部門，商品敞口作為對沖。
• 中國：人民幣和商品貨幣因經濟放緩面臨下行風險。金屬和農業提供選擇性機會。