This weeks focus on Forex and the test of previous market low 7552, besides introduce two short Bonds ETF
02/02/09
30/1/2009 US Market
The DOW opened at 8149, and close at 8000, low at 7961.92 - 148.15 –1.85%
The Treasuries fell as more government debt raising and the weakest US GDP growth in 4Q 2008 since 1Q 1982. This week the focus will be on the Obrama’s plan on create the bad bank and the non farm payroll figures.
The market will go down further to previous lowest point 7552 as more negotiation will undergoes in US senator.
As more and more people is concerning the future of US treasury. I had done a study in previous 10 days. It proved that the bonds is in negative side and the Put ETF is corelation. Therefore, as the bonds back to normal, please keep track the PST and TBT as a way to prove your short treasury view.
Tonight action : buy AUD when around 0.61000, Keep on buying Oil when around 40.
This week the focus will be in Forex as Australia will release its rate cut decision on Tuesday Feb 2009 and then both EUROPE and England announce the rate cute on 5 Feb 2009
At 5:00 the EUR is 1.2751, GBP is 1.4279 , AUD 0.6302
As the Market is risk averse thus the US will be stronger as safe heaven. However, next weeks, Tuesday 10 Feb 2009, more US treasury will be auction. 3 –Yr Note Auction on 10 Feb, 10 Yr Note Auction on 11 Feb and 30 Yr Bonds Auction on 12 Feb 2009.
As more the EUR, GPB and AUD direction will be confirmed after this week. The investor will use the outcome of the Treasury Auction to change the market view on USD and may impact the rate of USD.
On 30 Jan 2009, the Financial Sector still weak and so as technology. Only the Commodity like GOLD is in positive directly.
GE close at 12.13, BAC closed at 6.58, C closed at 3.55
At 5:08 pm on 2/2/09 the Dow future is 7832 – 121 point
The Gold is 913.53 and crude oil is 40.99
The HK Market
Closed at 12861 – 416 (-3.14%) volume is 356M
005 closed at 58.5 – 2.30 (-3.783% ) turnover 21 M
3988 closed at 1.99 – 0.080 (-3.865%)560M
1398 closed at 3.29 –0.060 (-1.79%) 274M
The China Market
Today is the first trade day of China Market and it opened at 2008 and closed at 2012.74 with volume 618 M
Bank of China RMB Closed 3.07
ICBC RMB closed 3.66
The Japan Market
The Nikkei closed at 7873.98 – 120.07,
1321 closed at 8010, - 100 (-1.23%)
UFJ closed at 485 – 25 (-4.9%)
MISUI Financial closed at 3490 –160 (-4.38%)
Canon closed at 2355 – 120 (-4.84%)
Toyota closed at 2885 – 40 (-1.36%)
The JPY is 88.90 at 5:18pm
This week there are many reports release :
International Calendar of Economic Events
All times are in Eastern Time.
This Week: February 2 - February 6, 2009
Monday, February 2, 2009
12:00 a.m. JPN: Jan Domestic Auto Sales (on year) Previous: -22.3%
12:00 a.m. JPN: Dec Steel Imports & Exports Statistics
3:45 a.m. ITA: Jan Mfg PMI
3:50 a.m. FRA: Jan Mfg PMI
3:55 a.m. GER: Jan Mfg PMI
4:00 a.m. EU: Jan Eurozone Mfg PMI
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan CIPS Mfg PMI Output Expected: 34.5 Previous: 34.9
6:50 p.m. JPN: Jan Monetary base
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
2:00 a.m. GER: Dec Retail Trade
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan CIPS Construction PMI
5:00 a.m. EU: Dec PPI
6:00 a.m. FRA: Dec OECD CPI
6:15 p.m. JPN: Jan Svcs PMI
7:01 p.m. UK: Jan Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index
7:01 p.m. UK: Jan REC & KPMG Report on Jobs
N/A JPN Dec: Provisional Labor Survey
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
3:45 a.m. ITA: Jan Svcs PMI
3:50 a.m. FRA: Jan Svcs PMI
3:55 a.m. GER: Jan Svcs PMI
4:00 a.m. EU: Jan Eurozone Svcs PMI
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan CIPS Svcs PMI Output Expected: 40 Previous: 40.2
5:00 a.m. EU: Dec Retail Trade
5:30 a.m. UK: Jan Shop Price Index
8:15 a.m. CAN: Jan Monetary Reserves - US Dollars Previous: +2.3B
11:00 a.m. UK: Jan Global Svcs PMI
9:00 p.m. JPN: Jan Imported Vehicle Sales
Thursday, February 5, 2009
4:30 a.m. UK: 4Q BoE UK residents deposits & lending analysis
5:00 a.m. ITA: Jan Cities CPI
5:00 a.m. ITA: Jan Provisional CPI
6:00 a.m. GER: Dec Mfg orders
7:00 a.m. UK: Feb BoE interest rate decision, Bank Rate Expected: 1% Previous: 1.5
7:45 a.m. EU: ECB interest rate decision announcement
8:30 a.m. CAN: Dec Building Permits Previous: -11.8%
10:00 a.m. CAN: Jan Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, Current Month Previous: 39.1
6:50 p.m. JPN: Jan Foreign Reserves (US dollars) Previous: 1.03T
6:50 p.m. JPN: Jan Provisional Trade Statistics for 1st 20 days of Month
Friday, February 6, 2009
12:00 a.m. JPN: Dec Leading Indicators Index, prelim Expected: 10 Previous: 0
2:45 a.m. FRA: Dec Foreign trade
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan Core PPI Yearly Expected: +3.6% Previous: +5%
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan Input PPI Monthly Expected: +0.5% Previous: -2%
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan Input PPI Yearly Expected: +2.9% Previous: +4.3%
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan Output PPI Monthly Expected: -0.1% Previous: 0%
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan Output PPI Yearly Expected: +3.4% Previous: +4.7%
4:30 a.m. UK: Dec Industrial Production Monthly Expected: -1.2% Previous: -2.3%
4:30 a.m. UK: Dec Industrial Production Yearly Expected: -8% Previous: -5.5%
4:30 a.m. UK: Dec Manufacturing Output Monthly Expected: -1.4% Previous: -2.9%
4:30 a.m. UK: Dec Manufacturing Output Yearly Expected: -8.6% Previous: -7.4%
4:30 a.m. UK: 4Q Insolvency statistics
6:00 a.m. GER: Dec Indus Production Index
7:00 a.m. CAN: Jan Employment Report, Jobless Rate Previous: 6.6%
8:00 a.m. FRA: Dec OECD Composite Leading Indicators
7:01 p.m. UK: Jan NIESR GDP Estimates
N/A UK Jan: Halifax House Price Index, Monthly Expected: -1.8% Previous: -2.2%
N/A UK Jan: Halifax House Price Index, Yearly Expected: -18.6% Previous: -16.2%
Calendar of U.S. Economic Events
This Week: February 2 - February 6, 2009
Monday, February 2, 2009
8:30 a.m. Dec Personal Income: Expected: -0.4%. Previous: -0.2%.
8:30 a.m. Dec Personal Spending: Expected: -0.8%. Previous: -0.6%.
10:00 a.m. Dec ISM Manufacturing Index: Expected: 32.0. Previous: 32.9.
10:00 a.m. Dec Construction Spending: Expected: -1.0%. Previous: -0.6%.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
7:45 a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Jan 31: Previous: -1.8%.
8:55 a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Jan 31: Previous: -2.6%.
10:00 a.m. Dec Pending Home Sales: Expected: 0.0%. Previous: -4.0%.
4:30 p.m. Jan 30 API Oil Industry Report
5:00 p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For Jan 31: Previous: -54.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
8:15 a.m. Jan ADP Employment Survey: Expected: -508K. Previous: -693K.
10:00 a.m. Jan Non-Manufacturing Index: Expected: 39.0. Previous: 40.1.
10:30 a.m. Jan 30 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
Thursday, February 5, 2009
8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Jan 31 Week: Expected: +2K. Prevous: +3K.
8:30 a.m. 4Q Productivity: Expected: +1.5%. Previous: +1.3%.
8:30 a.m. 4Q Unit Labor Cost: Expected: +2.5%. Previous: +2.8%.
10:00 a.m. Dec Dec Factory Orders: Expected: -3.2%. Previous: -4.6%.
10:00 a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For Jan 23: Previous: -1.2%.
Friday, February 6, 2009
8:30 a.m. Jan Non-Farm Payrolls: Expected: -525K. Previous: -524K.
8:30 a.m. Jan Unemployment Rate: Expected: 7.5%. Previous: 7.2%.
3:00 a.m. Dec Consumer Credit: Expected: -$3.5B. Previous: -$7.9B.
30/1/2009 US Market
The DOW opened at 8149, and close at 8000, low at 7961.92 - 148.15 –1.85%
The Treasuries fell as more government debt raising and the weakest US GDP growth in 4Q 2008 since 1Q 1982. This week the focus will be on the Obrama’s plan on create the bad bank and the non farm payroll figures.
The market will go down further to previous lowest point 7552 as more negotiation will undergoes in US senator.
As more and more people is concerning the future of US treasury. I had done a study in previous 10 days. It proved that the bonds is in negative side and the Put ETF is corelation. Therefore, as the bonds back to normal, please keep track the PST and TBT as a way to prove your short treasury view.
Tonight action : buy AUD when around 0.61000, Keep on buying Oil when around 40.
This week the focus will be in Forex as Australia will release its rate cut decision on Tuesday Feb 2009 and then both EUROPE and England announce the rate cute on 5 Feb 2009
At 5:00 the EUR is 1.2751, GBP is 1.4279 , AUD 0.6302
As the Market is risk averse thus the US will be stronger as safe heaven. However, next weeks, Tuesday 10 Feb 2009, more US treasury will be auction. 3 –Yr Note Auction on 10 Feb, 10 Yr Note Auction on 11 Feb and 30 Yr Bonds Auction on 12 Feb 2009.
As more the EUR, GPB and AUD direction will be confirmed after this week. The investor will use the outcome of the Treasury Auction to change the market view on USD and may impact the rate of USD.
On 30 Jan 2009, the Financial Sector still weak and so as technology. Only the Commodity like GOLD is in positive directly.
GE close at 12.13, BAC closed at 6.58, C closed at 3.55
At 5:08 pm on 2/2/09 the Dow future is 7832 – 121 point
The Gold is 913.53 and crude oil is 40.99
The HK Market
Closed at 12861 – 416 (-3.14%) volume is 356M
005 closed at 58.5 – 2.30 (-3.783% ) turnover 21 M
3988 closed at 1.99 – 0.080 (-3.865%)560M
1398 closed at 3.29 –0.060 (-1.79%) 274M
The China Market
Today is the first trade day of China Market and it opened at 2008 and closed at 2012.74 with volume 618 M
Bank of China RMB Closed 3.07
ICBC RMB closed 3.66
The Japan Market
The Nikkei closed at 7873.98 – 120.07,
1321 closed at 8010, - 100 (-1.23%)
UFJ closed at 485 – 25 (-4.9%)
MISUI Financial closed at 3490 –160 (-4.38%)
Canon closed at 2355 – 120 (-4.84%)
Toyota closed at 2885 – 40 (-1.36%)
The JPY is 88.90 at 5:18pm
This week there are many reports release :
International Calendar of Economic Events
All times are in Eastern Time.
This Week: February 2 - February 6, 2009
Monday, February 2, 2009
12:00 a.m. JPN: Jan Domestic Auto Sales (on year) Previous: -22.3%
12:00 a.m. JPN: Dec Steel Imports & Exports Statistics
3:45 a.m. ITA: Jan Mfg PMI
3:50 a.m. FRA: Jan Mfg PMI
3:55 a.m. GER: Jan Mfg PMI
4:00 a.m. EU: Jan Eurozone Mfg PMI
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan CIPS Mfg PMI Output Expected: 34.5 Previous: 34.9
6:50 p.m. JPN: Jan Monetary base
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
2:00 a.m. GER: Dec Retail Trade
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan CIPS Construction PMI
5:00 a.m. EU: Dec PPI
6:00 a.m. FRA: Dec OECD CPI
6:15 p.m. JPN: Jan Svcs PMI
7:01 p.m. UK: Jan Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index
7:01 p.m. UK: Jan REC & KPMG Report on Jobs
N/A JPN Dec: Provisional Labor Survey
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
3:45 a.m. ITA: Jan Svcs PMI
3:50 a.m. FRA: Jan Svcs PMI
3:55 a.m. GER: Jan Svcs PMI
4:00 a.m. EU: Jan Eurozone Svcs PMI
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan CIPS Svcs PMI Output Expected: 40 Previous: 40.2
5:00 a.m. EU: Dec Retail Trade
5:30 a.m. UK: Jan Shop Price Index
8:15 a.m. CAN: Jan Monetary Reserves - US Dollars Previous: +2.3B
11:00 a.m. UK: Jan Global Svcs PMI
9:00 p.m. JPN: Jan Imported Vehicle Sales
Thursday, February 5, 2009
4:30 a.m. UK: 4Q BoE UK residents deposits & lending analysis
5:00 a.m. ITA: Jan Cities CPI
5:00 a.m. ITA: Jan Provisional CPI
6:00 a.m. GER: Dec Mfg orders
7:00 a.m. UK: Feb BoE interest rate decision, Bank Rate Expected: 1% Previous: 1.5
7:45 a.m. EU: ECB interest rate decision announcement
8:30 a.m. CAN: Dec Building Permits Previous: -11.8%
10:00 a.m. CAN: Jan Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, Current Month Previous: 39.1
6:50 p.m. JPN: Jan Foreign Reserves (US dollars) Previous: 1.03T
6:50 p.m. JPN: Jan Provisional Trade Statistics for 1st 20 days of Month
Friday, February 6, 2009
12:00 a.m. JPN: Dec Leading Indicators Index, prelim Expected: 10 Previous: 0
2:45 a.m. FRA: Dec Foreign trade
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan Core PPI Yearly Expected: +3.6% Previous: +5%
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan Input PPI Monthly Expected: +0.5% Previous: -2%
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan Input PPI Yearly Expected: +2.9% Previous: +4.3%
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan Output PPI Monthly Expected: -0.1% Previous: 0%
4:30 a.m. UK: Jan Output PPI Yearly Expected: +3.4% Previous: +4.7%
4:30 a.m. UK: Dec Industrial Production Monthly Expected: -1.2% Previous: -2.3%
4:30 a.m. UK: Dec Industrial Production Yearly Expected: -8% Previous: -5.5%
4:30 a.m. UK: Dec Manufacturing Output Monthly Expected: -1.4% Previous: -2.9%
4:30 a.m. UK: Dec Manufacturing Output Yearly Expected: -8.6% Previous: -7.4%
4:30 a.m. UK: 4Q Insolvency statistics
6:00 a.m. GER: Dec Indus Production Index
7:00 a.m. CAN: Jan Employment Report, Jobless Rate Previous: 6.6%
8:00 a.m. FRA: Dec OECD Composite Leading Indicators
7:01 p.m. UK: Jan NIESR GDP Estimates
N/A UK Jan: Halifax House Price Index, Monthly Expected: -1.8% Previous: -2.2%
N/A UK Jan: Halifax House Price Index, Yearly Expected: -18.6% Previous: -16.2%
Calendar of U.S. Economic Events
This Week: February 2 - February 6, 2009
Monday, February 2, 2009
8:30 a.m. Dec Personal Income: Expected: -0.4%. Previous: -0.2%.
8:30 a.m. Dec Personal Spending: Expected: -0.8%. Previous: -0.6%.
10:00 a.m. Dec ISM Manufacturing Index: Expected: 32.0. Previous: 32.9.
10:00 a.m. Dec Construction Spending: Expected: -1.0%. Previous: -0.6%.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
7:45 a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Jan 31: Previous: -1.8%.
8:55 a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Jan 31: Previous: -2.6%.
10:00 a.m. Dec Pending Home Sales: Expected: 0.0%. Previous: -4.0%.
4:30 p.m. Jan 30 API Oil Industry Report
5:00 p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For Jan 31: Previous: -54.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
8:15 a.m. Jan ADP Employment Survey: Expected: -508K. Previous: -693K.
10:00 a.m. Jan Non-Manufacturing Index: Expected: 39.0. Previous: 40.1.
10:30 a.m. Jan 30 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
Thursday, February 5, 2009
8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Jan 31 Week: Expected: +2K. Prevous: +3K.
8:30 a.m. 4Q Productivity: Expected: +1.5%. Previous: +1.3%.
8:30 a.m. 4Q Unit Labor Cost: Expected: +2.5%. Previous: +2.8%.
10:00 a.m. Dec Dec Factory Orders: Expected: -3.2%. Previous: -4.6%.
10:00 a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For Jan 23: Previous: -1.2%.
Friday, February 6, 2009
8:30 a.m. Jan Non-Farm Payrolls: Expected: -525K. Previous: -524K.
8:30 a.m. Jan Unemployment Rate: Expected: 7.5%. Previous: 7.2%.
3:00 a.m. Dec Consumer Credit: Expected: -$3.5B. Previous: -$7.9B.
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