Since the movement of China and HK market are in two extreme. I have following thinking.
The China government support the market to reduce the impact from foreigner investor. So the Shanghai Index have straight climb for over 3.59%
Morgan stanley release the report in the morning to downgrade HSBC 005. HK to 52 should not be a co incident.
They may not to lower the market before Obrama in auguration and then once obrama release the stimulus plan and the remaining money to save the banking industrial. There will be a climb to around 9000.
If in this few days, they can lower the dow to near 8000 sides. They have almost 800 point profit. This is only my feeling.
Because the performance of DOW is very tricky in day time. It onces + 50 in the afternoon HK opening time and then - 45 at 5:55pm.
For detail of today market performance, see the following :
14 Jan 2009
Dow opened at 8475 and once went up to over 8517 at 10:09am and came down to the lowest point at 8407 at 2:23 pm and closed at 8405 – 25.31 (-0.30%)
GE slumped 5.6% after an analyst at Barclays negatively commented on the conglomerate’s profit forecast.
The Oil stocks outperformaned as cruel oil future climbed. Exxon XOM, Chevron CVX gain more than 1 %
HK Market
The news RBS sell Bank of China stake helped release the pressure on BOC shares and so as the HS index in early stage.
The HK index opened high at 13826 and once reached the highest point to 14019 and then closed at 13700 + 36.56 (+0.27%) with turnover volume 662 M. Minus RBS 203M it is only 460M.
005 Opened at 72 and close at 70.00 and the lowest is 69.7 before auction time. The turnover volume is 41M.
It is influenced by the Morgan Stanley report lower it target price to 52
3988 As RBS sold 108 Billion shares all Bank of China at1.71, the market reflected it by pushing up the price to 1.97. It may be the result of cover the short sell. . The turnover volume is 13,462M. Subtract the RBS volume, the real volume is around 3,462 M, double as previous day.
3988 closed at 1.90 before auction time. It is 1.88
1398 is also not in good shape. It opened at 3.47 and once reached 3.53 and closed at 3.37. Volume is 575M
China Market
The Shanghai market open at 1862 and then straight climbed high to 1928 close
With volume 641M. gain 3.59% strange behaviour.
The BOC in China price is 2.99 +2.4% and ICBC is 3.57 +2.59%
Japan Market
The Nikkei open at 8425 and close at 8438 + 24.54 (+0.29%)
The UFJ close at 524 – 2 (0.38%)
Sumitomo Trust 478 + 8 (1.5%)
Fast retailing close at 12,270 – 380 (-3%)
Toyota Motor is 2920 +45 (+1.56%)
Canon 2945 + 40 (1.37%)
JPY is 89.39 at 5:23 pm
For Forex
Both EUR and GBP are jumpy for over 100 point
EUR at 5.25PM is 1.3246
GBP at 5:25pm is 1.4592 and once go up to 1.4670
AUD is 0.6753
Tomorrow is the announcement of rate cut, usually the trader will push the EUR as low as possible. 1.3150 is already reflect cut half. If it is the same, it may rebound. This is only my guess only. Hope it works
The market has mixed message in China and HK market. With the Morgan Stanley support on 005 and the relimited gain in HS index. The big investor may be playing a low trend of market.
Dow future at 5:25 pm is 8404 – 6
Oil is 39.18 + 1.4
Gold is 826 + 5.9
Report release Today
International Market
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
1:00 a.m. JPN: Dec Machine Tool Orders, prelim On Year Previous: -62.2%
2:00 a.m. GER: Annual GDP, Monthly Expected: 1.4 Previous: +2.5%
2:00 a.m. GER: Annual GDP, Yearly Expected: 1.1 Previous: +2.6%
2:45 a.m. FRA: Nov Balance of Payments - Current Account, EUR Previous: -5B
2:50 a.m. FRA: Dec CPI Monthly Expected: -0.2% Previous: -0.5%
2:50 a.m. FRA: Dec CPI Yearly Expected: +1.1% Previous: +1.6%
4:00 a.m. ITA: Nov Industrial Output Monthly Expected: -1.5% Previous: -1.2%
4:00 a.m. ITA: Nov Industrial Output Yearly Expected: -6.6% Previous: -6.9%
5:00 a.m. EU: Nov Indus Production MoM Pct Change (Current Period) Expected: -2.1% Previous: -1.2%
5:00 a.m. EU: Nov Indus Production YoY Pct Change (Current Period) Expected: -6.7% Previous: -5.3%
6:50 p.m. JPN: Dec Corp Goods Price Index, Domestic CGPI (on year) Expected: +0.9% Previous: +2.8%
6:50 p.m. JPN: Nov Core Machinery Orders (on month) Expected: -7.5% Previous: -4.4%
11:30 p.m. JPN: Dec Corp Insolvencies On Year Previous: +11.5%
US Market
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
7:00 a.m. MBA Mortgage Application Survey: Previous: -12.3%.
8:30 a.m. Dec Retail Sales: Expected: -1.2%. Previous: -1.8%.
8:30 a.m. Dec Retail Sales, ex-autos: Expected: -1.5%. Previous: -1.6%.
8:30 a.m. Dec Import Prices: Previous: -6.7%.
10:00 a.m. Nov Business Inventories: Expected: -0.4%. Previous: -0.6%.
10:30 a.m. US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
10:30 a.m. API Oil Industry Report
2:00 p.m. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Earning result Big Corporation
PKX
POSCO
Q4 2008
n/a
14-Jan
Oil at 5:57 pm is 39.08 + 1.3
Don't know really the inventories will be reducing
for safety - separate the fund into three portions
buy 1/3 tonight as oil is still under 40
if inventory is really more than expected , the price will dropped
then buy more 1/3 when it really dropped new 35
and wait to see before the change on 21 Jan 2009
Good luck !
The China government support the market to reduce the impact from foreigner investor. So the Shanghai Index have straight climb for over 3.59%
Morgan stanley release the report in the morning to downgrade HSBC 005. HK to 52 should not be a co incident.
They may not to lower the market before Obrama in auguration and then once obrama release the stimulus plan and the remaining money to save the banking industrial. There will be a climb to around 9000.
If in this few days, they can lower the dow to near 8000 sides. They have almost 800 point profit. This is only my feeling.
Because the performance of DOW is very tricky in day time. It onces + 50 in the afternoon HK opening time and then - 45 at 5:55pm.
For detail of today market performance, see the following :
14 Jan 2009
Dow opened at 8475 and once went up to over 8517 at 10:09am and came down to the lowest point at 8407 at 2:23 pm and closed at 8405 – 25.31 (-0.30%)
GE slumped 5.6% after an analyst at Barclays negatively commented on the conglomerate’s profit forecast.
The Oil stocks outperformaned as cruel oil future climbed. Exxon XOM, Chevron CVX gain more than 1 %
HK Market
The news RBS sell Bank of China stake helped release the pressure on BOC shares and so as the HS index in early stage.
The HK index opened high at 13826 and once reached the highest point to 14019 and then closed at 13700 + 36.56 (+0.27%) with turnover volume 662 M. Minus RBS 203M it is only 460M.
005 Opened at 72 and close at 70.00 and the lowest is 69.7 before auction time. The turnover volume is 41M.
It is influenced by the Morgan Stanley report lower it target price to 52
3988 As RBS sold 108 Billion shares all Bank of China at1.71, the market reflected it by pushing up the price to 1.97. It may be the result of cover the short sell. . The turnover volume is 13,462M. Subtract the RBS volume, the real volume is around 3,462 M, double as previous day.
3988 closed at 1.90 before auction time. It is 1.88
1398 is also not in good shape. It opened at 3.47 and once reached 3.53 and closed at 3.37. Volume is 575M
China Market
The Shanghai market open at 1862 and then straight climbed high to 1928 close
With volume 641M. gain 3.59% strange behaviour.
The BOC in China price is 2.99 +2.4% and ICBC is 3.57 +2.59%
Japan Market
The Nikkei open at 8425 and close at 8438 + 24.54 (+0.29%)
The UFJ close at 524 – 2 (0.38%)
Sumitomo Trust 478 + 8 (1.5%)
Fast retailing close at 12,270 – 380 (-3%)
Toyota Motor is 2920 +45 (+1.56%)
Canon 2945 + 40 (1.37%)
JPY is 89.39 at 5:23 pm
For Forex
Both EUR and GBP are jumpy for over 100 point
EUR at 5.25PM is 1.3246
GBP at 5:25pm is 1.4592 and once go up to 1.4670
AUD is 0.6753
Tomorrow is the announcement of rate cut, usually the trader will push the EUR as low as possible. 1.3150 is already reflect cut half. If it is the same, it may rebound. This is only my guess only. Hope it works
The market has mixed message in China and HK market. With the Morgan Stanley support on 005 and the relimited gain in HS index. The big investor may be playing a low trend of market.
Dow future at 5:25 pm is 8404 – 6
Oil is 39.18 + 1.4
Gold is 826 + 5.9
Report release Today
International Market
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
1:00 a.m. JPN: Dec Machine Tool Orders, prelim On Year Previous: -62.2%
2:00 a.m. GER: Annual GDP, Monthly Expected: 1.4 Previous: +2.5%
2:00 a.m. GER: Annual GDP, Yearly Expected: 1.1 Previous: +2.6%
2:45 a.m. FRA: Nov Balance of Payments - Current Account, EUR Previous: -5B
2:50 a.m. FRA: Dec CPI Monthly Expected: -0.2% Previous: -0.5%
2:50 a.m. FRA: Dec CPI Yearly Expected: +1.1% Previous: +1.6%
4:00 a.m. ITA: Nov Industrial Output Monthly Expected: -1.5% Previous: -1.2%
4:00 a.m. ITA: Nov Industrial Output Yearly Expected: -6.6% Previous: -6.9%
5:00 a.m. EU: Nov Indus Production MoM Pct Change (Current Period) Expected: -2.1% Previous: -1.2%
5:00 a.m. EU: Nov Indus Production YoY Pct Change (Current Period) Expected: -6.7% Previous: -5.3%
6:50 p.m. JPN: Dec Corp Goods Price Index, Domestic CGPI (on year) Expected: +0.9% Previous: +2.8%
6:50 p.m. JPN: Nov Core Machinery Orders (on month) Expected: -7.5% Previous: -4.4%
11:30 p.m. JPN: Dec Corp Insolvencies On Year Previous: +11.5%
US Market
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
7:00 a.m. MBA Mortgage Application Survey: Previous: -12.3%.
8:30 a.m. Dec Retail Sales: Expected: -1.2%. Previous: -1.8%.
8:30 a.m. Dec Retail Sales, ex-autos: Expected: -1.5%. Previous: -1.6%.
8:30 a.m. Dec Import Prices: Previous: -6.7%.
10:00 a.m. Nov Business Inventories: Expected: -0.4%. Previous: -0.6%.
10:30 a.m. US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
10:30 a.m. API Oil Industry Report
2:00 p.m. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Earning result Big Corporation
PKX
POSCO
Q4 2008
n/a
14-Jan
Oil at 5:57 pm is 39.08 + 1.3
Don't know really the inventories will be reducing
for safety - separate the fund into three portions
buy 1/3 tonight as oil is still under 40
if inventory is really more than expected , the price will dropped
then buy more 1/3 when it really dropped new 35
and wait to see before the change on 21 Jan 2009
Good luck !
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