Happy New Year 2009
After resting for almost 10 days. It is time back to work. Honestly, I was not really doing nothing in past ten days. I did do some trade. Like buy China Oil. 857 in HK market around christmas time and oil ETF. Why? It is because I believe the oil market will be active after holiday. Luckily, I get the deal and done right.
It is the same attitude in 2009 Market. Don't look it too positive and negative in 2009. We have to be calm, plan and act ahead according to the calendar e.g special event like US President Inauguration, Rate decision meeting and announcement, economic figure announcement and market feedback. Afterall. The key is to act fast and quick with confidence. When the outcome is out of your mind. Cut loss and wait for next chances. Cause 2009 are very unstable and no one can tell how it will be.
According to the the Economist's forecast, the economic still in contraction, financial conditions will be worse far more than better. More unemployment, the companies' earning will be worse,
deleveraging will be continued, hedge funds and other leverage players are forced to sell assets.
Thus, it is a remarkable years for up and down. However all of this is timing and preparation. If you mind are all prepare for that. We are in the winning edge.
This years, I will suggest on both sides. put and call depends on market's response and message.
For Jan 2009, I believe there is the uptrend till 16 Jan 2009. For HK Market , I believe it will go over 16000 at least before 16 Jan 2009. For Dow, I think it will be around 9400 - 9600 at least.
However after that, I believe it will be the time for put strategies. Regarding the commodity. I am normal for Gold because Gold will not be too good under recession. Besides from 850 - 1000. only have 17% increase. However i prefer to put this budget to other vehicles that can be long hold and secure.
In 2009, I prefer to buy more oil related investment tools when its price is around lower 30 -50 barrel. Besides, I will prefer to put more on alternative energy or green energy and crop for long terms.
For security, there is no doubt to invest on China Market. However, we better not to ignore the US market, because the pharmacy, customer discretionary products and IT are still strong in US.
Thus in 2009, I will accumulated
a) Oil - DXO, SLB, CVX,
b) Wind power : PWND, FAN
c) Sun power : Suntech, First Solar, WFR
d) Crop : JJA, DBA, UAG, DAG, AFG,
e) Water : CGW
For trade
1) long and put double ETF
For China and HK market
a) 576
b) 857
c) 2823
d) 1398
For individual investors like us, I don't suggest to invest on bonds this years because the risk is relative high and the return is not worth. The default rate of corporate bonds increase.
In 2009, the problem is the the credit liquidity problem, 2009 - 2010 is the ARM years. The people who purchase house in US or EUR in 2007 will start to pay the normal rate or high rate.
This time, many people may not able to pay the new rate as the unemployment rate increase.
Be ware !
For tonight
US
Nov Construction Expenditures
Dec Light Vehicle Sales
HK market today climbed 520 point and close at 15563. The turnover rate is 494 M.
The real uptrend started from 15: 09 pm
Japan market 9043 + 183 point, The Japan market has climbed up for over 8 days. The FT article proved that the Japanese Corporation are buying their the shares. Based on this fact, It is reasonable believe that the Japan market will be better toward the 2008 Japanese financial years end. Aware the movement of JPY too. The March will be the peak expensive Yen time.
So be alert to buy back some YEN.
JPY USD - 92.89
GBP USD- 1.4458
EUR USD-1.3682
After resting for almost 10 days. It is time back to work. Honestly, I was not really doing nothing in past ten days. I did do some trade. Like buy China Oil. 857 in HK market around christmas time and oil ETF. Why? It is because I believe the oil market will be active after holiday. Luckily, I get the deal and done right.
It is the same attitude in 2009 Market. Don't look it too positive and negative in 2009. We have to be calm, plan and act ahead according to the calendar e.g special event like US President Inauguration, Rate decision meeting and announcement, economic figure announcement and market feedback. Afterall. The key is to act fast and quick with confidence. When the outcome is out of your mind. Cut loss and wait for next chances. Cause 2009 are very unstable and no one can tell how it will be.
According to the the Economist's forecast, the economic still in contraction, financial conditions will be worse far more than better. More unemployment, the companies' earning will be worse,
deleveraging will be continued, hedge funds and other leverage players are forced to sell assets.
Thus, it is a remarkable years for up and down. However all of this is timing and preparation. If you mind are all prepare for that. We are in the winning edge.
This years, I will suggest on both sides. put and call depends on market's response and message.
For Jan 2009, I believe there is the uptrend till 16 Jan 2009. For HK Market , I believe it will go over 16000 at least before 16 Jan 2009. For Dow, I think it will be around 9400 - 9600 at least.
However after that, I believe it will be the time for put strategies. Regarding the commodity. I am normal for Gold because Gold will not be too good under recession. Besides from 850 - 1000. only have 17% increase. However i prefer to put this budget to other vehicles that can be long hold and secure.
In 2009, I prefer to buy more oil related investment tools when its price is around lower 30 -50 barrel. Besides, I will prefer to put more on alternative energy or green energy and crop for long terms.
For security, there is no doubt to invest on China Market. However, we better not to ignore the US market, because the pharmacy, customer discretionary products and IT are still strong in US.
Thus in 2009, I will accumulated
a) Oil - DXO, SLB, CVX,
b) Wind power : PWND, FAN
c) Sun power : Suntech, First Solar, WFR
d) Crop : JJA, DBA, UAG, DAG, AFG,
e) Water : CGW
For trade
1) long and put double ETF
For China and HK market
a) 576
b) 857
c) 2823
d) 1398
For individual investors like us, I don't suggest to invest on bonds this years because the risk is relative high and the return is not worth. The default rate of corporate bonds increase.
In 2009, the problem is the the credit liquidity problem, 2009 - 2010 is the ARM years. The people who purchase house in US or EUR in 2007 will start to pay the normal rate or high rate.
This time, many people may not able to pay the new rate as the unemployment rate increase.
Be ware !
For tonight
US
Nov Construction Expenditures
Dec Light Vehicle Sales
HK market today climbed 520 point and close at 15563. The turnover rate is 494 M.
The real uptrend started from 15: 09 pm
Japan market 9043 + 183 point, The Japan market has climbed up for over 8 days. The FT article proved that the Japanese Corporation are buying their the shares. Based on this fact, It is reasonable believe that the Japan market will be better toward the 2008 Japanese financial years end. Aware the movement of JPY too. The March will be the peak expensive Yen time.
So be alert to buy back some YEN.
JPY USD - 92.89
GBP USD- 1.4458
EUR USD-1.3682
Comments
It's good to have your advice again. I have done nothing because the HSI is almost 16000, I will wait for another chance. It's a pity that I didn't take action before X'mas. Let's see what happens after I come back from Guam in early Feb.
2009 05 JAN
今日恒指巳差不多到15600, 如昨日所估計, 大市向15600, 但Put的未平倉合約稍為增加,成交量方面也有增加, 應是平倉居多, 大市短暫升勢可能巳差不多.
2009 06/JAN
今日期權成交及未平倉合約不活躍,大市在15600牛皮,主要看外圍了.
2009 07/JAN.
今日Put 14000 有一千四百多張期權成交, 特別要注意, 正如前幾天所料, 大市暫回調, 回調後是否再上升, 暫未能確定.
HSBC 67.50-70.00
中移動 72.50