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Tonight is the time to figure the market direction






















15 - 16 Dec 2008











DOW Range 8469.03 - 8676.28 have 207 point difference. Review the whole night, it is not easy to understand the trader is settle the short orders first to prepare for 16 Dec FOCM Meeting. Why? At 3:25 am, the DOW touch the lowest point of the day at 84.69 and immediately go back to 3.41 pm to 8613.75 and close at 8564.

The market is started to worry about the economy, the VIX open at 55.68, in which the previous day was around 54. The range of VIX last night is 55.68 - 58.49 and close at 56.76. This is the proof that the risk alert in the market. Thus tonight, the comment of the FOCM meeting will lead the market to big swing.

EUR Climbed high at 1.3700 and close at 1.3670. At 16 Dec 5:54pm it come back to 1.3636. According to the US Index, EUR may have some retreat after the FOCM decision. So please aware it.

GBP also retreat back to 1.5217 @ 5:56 pm and last night the high is 1.5375. GBP has a weaker trend than EUR. Aware it.

For Gold, last night with the weaker of USD and DOW , it climbed to 841 , $9 to 850. Suggest to step back on Gold to get some profit first. Once the USD direction is settle, People may gain money first. Based on the Chart, there may be some retreat.

Oil once go over 50 last night and immediately retreat to 46 and now is 44.73. The direction of Oil has to be determined after the meeting on 17 Dec 2008. So One more day to go. Today, the news said the oil should be 75. However I afraid this is the trick the trader offer. Make you follow it and buy. So be careful. For me, I will prefer to wait longer.

HS Index close at 15130 just +83.26 the turnover is 403 Million only. The market seems don't want to drop but all depends on the support on China market. However, based on the Chart reading, It seems little adjustment is coming. Because no people intend to enter the market, but more and more people want to gain money first and rest for holiday. So better not enter the market if u don't have any position.

Tonight, my stratgies is still the same. Settle Gold first, keep on holding the Short, aware the EUR performance as the comment of the FOCM release.

Comments

Anonymous said…
Mr Chou said that HK market would remain uptrend til Jan 2009.

Just watched the TV and learned that Hong Kong might be the first RMB exchange centre for China; I think it would keep people excited for a while.
December 16, 2008 at 6:27 PM
sparkle said…
Honestly, We are not able to predict every market move. However, as I said last time, we can do it by accumulate certain amount of shares every month. This strategies won't let you felt loss if the market up, but when the market down, u just purchase more.
this is a very good stratgies. The most safe is 2823. A basket of security only. I am doing it also.
December 16, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Unknown said…
如英磅繼續升，且英國匯豐價高於香港，香港Hsbc 未來應該好有升回一百。
December 17, 2008 at 7:19 AM
Unknown said…
油組只減產２００百萬桶，油價跌。但仍維持油價＄４０或以下逐註買入。

金價09年也看好，但唔知有無機會再低價買入。
December 17, 2008 at 7:24 AM
Unknown said…
得出教訓，按以往統計，十二月份最好不要做淡。
December 17, 2008 at 7:25 AM
sparkle said…
Short needs strategies and very good EQ. If you just for day trade, the time table of event is very important. For long term, prepare to lose and the % you can afford, and which level you want to buy more. almost 0 interest rate is not a good sign. Just the trader as good excuse to push up the price. I am waiting for the next point at 9600. Remember this point.
December 17, 2008 at 10:39 AM
sparkle said…
Besides, never short or hold only one vehicle. Bonds, Oil, Gold, Security and Currency. Long or Short tried to balance to minimize the lost.
December 17, 2008 at 10:42 AM
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