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Keep calm and hold in this stage on both US & HK


15 Dec 2008

11 Dec 2008 HSINDEX once dropped over 1000 as the Auto bailout cannot be passed in the voting and close at 14758.39 change - 855.51 - 5.48%

Today 15 Dec 2008 open high at 15290 and and close at 15046. While Shanghai Index open at 1977 and close at 1964.37 even the China release 30 more stimulate economic plan.

While the DOW future once at +50 at 6:15pm is -30 8660

HSBC is closed at 84.20. Think the drop may be influence by the Madoff case

As US will start having the meeting on interest rate discussion, the EUR will be keep on uptrend.

am 1.3435 at 6:15pm 1.34728

In the current stage, better not to do anything in US market as there is no clear direction.

The VIX is around 55 and approaching 50. Besides, even the Auto bailout and the interest rate cut is confirmed. In the long run, both the US economy and USD are weak.

In this stage, we can start to evaluate whether the money should stayed in good company bonds because the government yield is really low. The security market do not have much support.

The better commercial bonds etf, you can check the LQD

This week is a dangerous week. There are many figures release. Besides, holiday is approaching. I remember in this period, the volume is very thin. It is very easy for trader to move up and down. Caution!

Oil at 47.38 at 6:27pm. Don't know whether it will going down after the production cut announced on Wed 17 Dec 2008. Either choose buy little to keep watch the market or back off totally. Up to you. Suggestion on Oil Security : DO, DVN.

Besides, there is other thinking, as the global economy is not good. The possibility of war may be higher, Will the defence share be good to accumulated. If you agree. Take a look on LMT and NOC. This companies manufacture miltary goods.

This weeks, we have the following figures : printed from WSJ.

International

Monday, December 15, 2008
4:00 a.m. ITA: Nov CPI
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov London Retail Sales Monitor
6:50 p.m. JPN: Oct Tertiary Industry Index (on month) Previous: -0.6%

US
8:30 a.m. Dec NY Fed Manufacturing Index: Expected: -26.5. Previous: -25.4.
9:00 a.m. Oct Treasury International Capital Flows: Previous: $57.2B.
9:00 a.m. Nov Industrial Production: Expected: -0.6%. Previous: +1.3%.
9:15 a.m. Nov Capacity Utilization: Expected: 75.8. Previous: 76.4.
1:00 p.m. Dec NAHB Housing Market Index: Previous: 9.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008


International

2:45 a.m. FRA: Nov CPI
3:00 a.m. FRA: Dec NTC Flash PMI
3:30 a.m. GER: Dec NTC Flash PMI
4:00 a.m. EU: Dec Euro-zone Flash PMI
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov CPI Monthly Expected: -0.3% Previous: -0.2%
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov CPI Yearly Expected: +3.9% Previous: +4.5%
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov CPI Core Yearly Expected: +1.8% Previous: +1.9%
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov Retail Price Index Monthly Expected: -0.7% Previous: -0.3%
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov Retail Price Index Yearly Expected: +3.1% Previous: +4.2%
5:00 a.m. EU: 3Q Employment
8:30 a.m. CAN: Oct Mfg Survey Shipments Previous: +0.1%
7:01 p.m. UK: Nov Scottish Retail Sales Monitor

US

7:45 a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Dec 13: Previous: -0.8%.
8:30 a.m. Nov Consumer Price Index: Expected: -1.3%. Previous: -1%.
8:30 a.m. Nov CPI, Ex-Food & Energy: Expected: +0.1%. Previous: -0.1%.
8:30 a.m. Nov Housing Starts: Previous: -6.3%.
8:55 a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Dec 13: Previous: -0.4%.
2:15 p.m. Dec FOMC interest rate decision expected, Federal Funds Rate: Previous: 1%.
5:00 p.m. Dec 13 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index: Previous: -52.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

International
12:00 a.m. JPN: Oct Indexes of Business Conditions, Revision
2:00 a.m. GER: Nov CPI
4:00 a.m. ITA: Oct Foreign Trade EU
4:30 a.m. UK: Dec Agents' Summary of Business Conditions
4:30 a.m. UK: Dec BoE MPC meeting minutes, MPC Vote For Action Expected: 9 Previous: 9
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov Average Earnings (Ex-Bonuses), 3M/Y Expected: +3.2% Previous: +3.3%
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov Jobless Claimant Rate - % of Workforce Expected: 3.1% Previous: 3%
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov Jobless Claimants (Adjusted) Expected: +45000 Previous: +36500
5:00 a.m. EU: Oct Construction output
5:00 a.m. EU: Nov Harmonized CPI
6:00 a.m. UK: Dec CBI Distributive Trades Survey, Retail Sales Volume Index Expected: -44 Previous: -46
8:30 a.m. CAN: Oct Wholesale Trade Previous: +1.5%

US

7:00 a.m. MBA Mortgage Application Survey: Previous: -7.1%.
8:30 a.m. 3Q Current Account Balance: Expected: -$179B. Previous: -$183.1B.
10:35 a.m. US Energy Dept Oil Inventories for Dec 12
10:35 a.m. API Oil Industry Report for Dec 12


Thursday, December 18, 2008

International

12:30 a.m. JPN: Nov Tokyo area department store sales
12:30 a.m. JPN: Nov Nationwide department store sales
1:00 a.m. JPN: Nov Machine Tool Orders On Year Previous: -40.0
4:00 a.m. GER: Dec Ifo German Business Climate Index
4:00 a.m. ITA: 3Q Labor Force
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov Retail Sales Monthly Expected: -0.7% Previous: -0.1%
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov Retail Sales Yearly Expected: +0.9% Previous: +1.9%
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov Public Sector Net Borrowing, GBP Expected: 13.5B Previous: +1.4B
4:30 a.m. UK: Nov Public Sector Net Cash Requirements, GBP Expected: 11.7B Previous: -4.9B
5:00 a.m. EU: Oct Foreign trade
8:30 a.m. CAN: Oct Intl Securities Transactions - C$ Foreign Buying/Selling Of Cdn Securities Previous: -267M
8:30 a.m. CAN: Oct Total Retail Sales Previous: +1.1%
8:30 a.m. CAN: Nov Composite Leading Indicators Index(LII) Previous: -0.4%
6:50 p.m. JPN: Oct All Industry Activity Index (on month) Previous: -0.1%
7:01 p.m. UK: Dec Consumer Confidence Survey Expected: -39 Previous: -35

US

8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Dec 13 Week: Expected: -23K. Previous: +58K.
10:00 a.m. Nov Conference Board Leading Indicators: Expected: -0.4%. Previous: -0.8%.
10:00 a.m. Dec Philadelphia Fed Business Index: Expected: -40. Previous: -39.3.
10:00 a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For Nov 10: Previous: -0.9%.
10:35 a.m. Natural Gas Inventories for Dec 13


Friday, December 19, 2008
International

12:00 a.m. JPN: Nov Steel Production
2:00 a.m. GER: Nov PPI
2:45 a.m. FRA: 3Q Survey on Labor Activity & Employment Status
2:45 a.m. FRA: Dec Business survey (goods-producing industries)
4:00 a.m. ITA: Oct Indus turnover & orders
4:30 a.m. UK: 3Q BoE on UK banks external claims
4:30 a.m. UK: 3Q Business Investment QoQ Second Estimate Expected: -0.2% Previous: -1%
4:30 a.m. UK: 3Q Business Investment YoY Second Estimate Expected: -0.5% Previous: +1.2%
7:00 a.m. CAN: Nov All Items CPI (Cur Month) Previous: -1%
7:00 a.m. CAN: Nov All Items CPI (Cur Year) Previous: +2.6%
7:00 a.m. CAN: Nov Core CPI (Cur Month) Previous: -0.2%
7:00 a.m. CAN: Nov Core CPI (Cur Year) Previous: +1.7%
8:30 a.m. CAN: Oct Job Insurance Claims Previous: +2.6%

US
No economic events are scheduled for today.

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