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Another Opportunity to witness the interest rate effect


16 -17 Dec 2008


I really glad that I am able to witness the historic rate cut decision in this century. Having an almost zero interest rate in USD. It's the last bullet in interest rate.

On 16, I had already believe the traders will push up the DOW but don't know the effect is so significant +359.61 close at 8924.14


Regarding the Oil, once confirmation the Oil will cut 2M barrel, the oil gradually drop to 44 / barrel and the oil security also don't have disappointed result even the DOW climb so high, the Banking sector is the winner.


On the same time, USD immediately dropped after the announcement and the EUR & JPY 1.41xx and at 5:59pm is 1.4093 &89.12 How long this rally can last? Let's wait and see.


In the morning, I am still thinking how will be the +395 affect Asia Market, However, all asia markets are open high and close little bit low. HSINDEX : 15460.52 +330 2.18% the high is 15555, Japan 8658 open , 8741 high and close at 8612


I believe there will not be big drop in China and HK market because more and more stimulate plan is annoucing. I believe HK market will keep higher after Mr. Tsang came back on Friday on the RMB business. More fund is in the market now. Besides, I still believe it is the year end effect. The turnover of HS is 564M. Not so bad.

I still prefer to sit aside and see tonight. Dow future - 178 @6.04pm. EUR - 42 Cannot predict whether it means the direction in DOW tonight. Or it is a trap?


One thing is right after last night. 50% 50% stratgies is the best. Able to manage the event times can help you to be calm.
For instance, Oil immediately retreat after information release. As you prepared for it. You will calm to manage. However not everytime have to same effect. Will it apply to OPEC decision just now? Dont' know. Because Oil already climb to 45.66 as opec affirmed the 2M barrel production cut. Will be retreated tonight in US market? Let's see !

Comments

Anonymous said…
Yes, things are getting interesting. US cut interest rate almost to zero, and HK most likely could obtain the first RMB clearance centre, etc. I wonder what next good news will be to maintain the uptrend.

Just wait & see!
December 17, 2008 at 8:38 PM
Unknown said…
Yes, 短期港股和H股沒有什麼不好的消息,只會有中國不斷推出救市措施.

明年第一季度各公司出業績時較波動, 特別是美股.
December 18, 2008 at 2:28 PM
sparkle said…
Everyone knows the 1st quarter is the worst. However the timing is very important and have to be careful. According to China adjust annual report schedule. Most of the result will be release in March 2009. How is the effect when Obrama on board, the effect while the US quarter report release etc also impact the market. Now everyone said the economy seems not good. However whether the market has reflect it already. Let's think carefully
December 18, 2008 at 5:33 PM
Unknown said…
VIX 指數和 put/call 比例昨日都下跌了部份.
December 18, 2008 at 6:12 PM
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