and the market will try to reach a higher level around 16400 1st stop and 2st stop 17000.
Why i have this thinking?
1. the china market will not fall very fast in short term because people still hoping for new stimulus plan and besides it is near 1/5. China won't let the market fall suddenly.
2. the US bankers have adjust the balance sheet without mark to market. That means not much bad news will coming in short term except the stress test result. So within this period, The strong bank will return money to TRAP (US government) It will be the good news to boost the market. But those without money will be very weak after the release of the result. Now is still not the right time to be short for the trader.
3. Now, there are still not much people believe it is bull market. As most of the people believe it is the bull market, then it will be the time to short
according to Japan experience, the rebound can be range around 37% - 62%, If I use 40% -45% - 50%
the HS rebound from 11344 will be 15881 reached, 16448 and 17016
For my personal opinion, i believe it will reach 16448 in month end. But whether it can reach 17016 that can depends on China and US performance. Let's wait and see
However, my own strategy is don't go into the market because the up side is limited.
I prefer to wait for next time .
17 April 2009
US Market
The Dow index open 8029 and close at 8125 and high is 8168 at 03:41 pm +95.81(+1.19%)
Sector performance (% change on day): Financials (+0.63%), Tech (+3.19%), Health Care (+0.36%), Consumer Staples (+1.26%), Consumer Discretionary (+3.43%), Industrials (+2.93%), Energy (+0.18%), Telecom (+1.18%), Materials (+0.62%), and Utilities (+0.15%).
Dow +95.81 at 8125.43, Nasdaq +43.64 at 1670.44, S&P +13.24 at 865.30
AAPL 121.45 ,AIG 1.69 GE 12.27, SBUX 11.61, INTC 15.89,BAC 10.34,CSCO 18.08,C 4.01 NXY 19.96,SU 25.27
The EUR trade at 1.3076 at 5:23 pm.
The GBP trade at 1.4781 at 5:23 pm
The CAD trade at 1.2130 at 5:23 pm
The JPY 99.35 at 5.23 pm
The Gold price is 872 at 5:23 pm
The Crude Oil is 49.47 at 5.23pm
The Dow future is at trading from -15 in the early morning to afternoon –40 and then -47 at 5:24 pm.
Japan Market
The Nikkei index open at 8854 and close at 8907, high is 8953 +152.3(+1.74%)
Fast Retailing 10,400 -60(-0.57%)
UFJ 513 +8 (-1.58%)
Toyota 3820 +110(+2.96 %)
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial 3040 +110 (+3.75%)
HK Market
The HS Index open at 15956 and close at 15601 +18.28(+0.12%), April Future is 15687 the turnover volume is 752M Previous 746M
The 005 open at 57 and close at 55.15 with volume 41.85M previous 41M
The 3988 open at 2.9 and close at 2.81 with turnover 554M and previous 638M
The 1398 open at 4.54 and close at 4.47 with turnover 514M and previous 442M
HSBA.L trading high in London +4, 0.82% at 492 P @5:32PM HK Time
Hang Seng Index 15601.27 +18.28 +0.12%
HSI - Finance 22805.96 -80.38 -0.35%
HSI - Utilities 35375.77 +328.38 +0.94%
HSI - Properties 20480.09 +308.26 +1.53%
HSI - Commerce & Industry 8553.10 +25.24 +0.30%
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index 9052.18 -89.05 -0.97%
Hang Seng China H-Financials Index 11929.66 -103.13 -0.86%
Hang Seng Composite Index 2159.72 +0.49 +0.02%
Last update: 17-04-2009 16:01
Hang Seng China 50 Index 5044.33 -34.20 -0.67%
Hang Seng China AH Premium Index 136.62 -0.42 -0.31%
China market
The Shanghai Index open at 2524 and close at 2503 with volume 1576M and previous 1753 M
BOC close at RMB3.52
ICBC close at RMB4.11
Release Reports
International
Friday, April 17, 2009
1:00 a.m. JPN: Mar Consumer Confidence Survey Previous: 26.7
1:30 a.m. JPN: Mar Nationwide department store sales
4:00 a.m. ITA: Feb Indus turnover & orders
5:00 a.m. EU: Feb Foreign trade
5:00 a.m. EU: Feb Construction output
7:00 a.m. CAN: Mar All Items CPI (Cur Month) Previous: +0.7%
7:00 a.m. CAN: Mar All Items CPI (Cur Year) Previous: +1.4%
7:00 a.m. CAN: Mar Core CPI (Cur Month) Previous: +0.5%
7:00 a.m. CAN: Mar Core CPI (Cur Year) Expected: +1.9% Previous: +1.9%
US Market
Friday, April 10, 2009
Mar Federal Budget Balance: -$192.27B. Expected: -$157.5B. Previous: -$192.7B.
Earning report : 17/4 GE, 22/4 APPLE, 29/4 Starbuck,
28/4 NXY
Why i have this thinking?
1. the china market will not fall very fast in short term because people still hoping for new stimulus plan and besides it is near 1/5. China won't let the market fall suddenly.
2. the US bankers have adjust the balance sheet without mark to market. That means not much bad news will coming in short term except the stress test result. So within this period, The strong bank will return money to TRAP (US government) It will be the good news to boost the market. But those without money will be very weak after the release of the result. Now is still not the right time to be short for the trader.
3. Now, there are still not much people believe it is bull market. As most of the people believe it is the bull market, then it will be the time to short
according to Japan experience, the rebound can be range around 37% - 62%, If I use 40% -45% - 50%
the HS rebound from 11344 will be 15881 reached, 16448 and 17016
For my personal opinion, i believe it will reach 16448 in month end. But whether it can reach 17016 that can depends on China and US performance. Let's wait and see
However, my own strategy is don't go into the market because the up side is limited.
I prefer to wait for next time .
17 April 2009
US Market
The Dow index open 8029 and close at 8125 and high is 8168 at 03:41 pm +95.81(+1.19%)
Sector performance (% change on day): Financials (+0.63%), Tech (+3.19%), Health Care (+0.36%), Consumer Staples (+1.26%), Consumer Discretionary (+3.43%), Industrials (+2.93%), Energy (+0.18%), Telecom (+1.18%), Materials (+0.62%), and Utilities (+0.15%).
Dow +95.81 at 8125.43, Nasdaq +43.64 at 1670.44, S&P +13.24 at 865.30
AAPL 121.45 ,AIG 1.69 GE 12.27, SBUX 11.61, INTC 15.89,BAC 10.34,CSCO 18.08,C 4.01 NXY 19.96,SU 25.27
The EUR trade at 1.3076 at 5:23 pm.
The GBP trade at 1.4781 at 5:23 pm
The CAD trade at 1.2130 at 5:23 pm
The JPY 99.35 at 5.23 pm
The Gold price is 872 at 5:23 pm
The Crude Oil is 49.47 at 5.23pm
The Dow future is at trading from -15 in the early morning to afternoon –40 and then -47 at 5:24 pm.
Japan Market
The Nikkei index open at 8854 and close at 8907, high is 8953 +152.3(+1.74%)
Fast Retailing 10,400 -60(-0.57%)
UFJ 513 +8 (-1.58%)
Toyota 3820 +110(+2.96 %)
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial 3040 +110 (+3.75%)
HK Market
The HS Index open at 15956 and close at 15601 +18.28(+0.12%), April Future is 15687 the turnover volume is 752M Previous 746M
The 005 open at 57 and close at 55.15 with volume 41.85M previous 41M
The 3988 open at 2.9 and close at 2.81 with turnover 554M and previous 638M
The 1398 open at 4.54 and close at 4.47 with turnover 514M and previous 442M
HSBA.L trading high in London +4, 0.82% at 492 P @5:32PM HK Time
Hang Seng Index 15601.27 +18.28 +0.12%
HSI - Finance 22805.96 -80.38 -0.35%
HSI - Utilities 35375.77 +328.38 +0.94%
HSI - Properties 20480.09 +308.26 +1.53%
HSI - Commerce & Industry 8553.10 +25.24 +0.30%
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index 9052.18 -89.05 -0.97%
Hang Seng China H-Financials Index 11929.66 -103.13 -0.86%
Hang Seng Composite Index 2159.72 +0.49 +0.02%
Last update: 17-04-2009 16:01
Hang Seng China 50 Index 5044.33 -34.20 -0.67%
Hang Seng China AH Premium Index 136.62 -0.42 -0.31%
China market
The Shanghai Index open at 2524 and close at 2503 with volume 1576M and previous 1753 M
BOC close at RMB3.52
ICBC close at RMB4.11
Release Reports
International
Friday, April 17, 2009
1:00 a.m. JPN: Mar Consumer Confidence Survey Previous: 26.7
1:30 a.m. JPN: Mar Nationwide department store sales
4:00 a.m. ITA: Feb Indus turnover & orders
5:00 a.m. EU: Feb Foreign trade
5:00 a.m. EU: Feb Construction output
7:00 a.m. CAN: Mar All Items CPI (Cur Month) Previous: +0.7%
7:00 a.m. CAN: Mar All Items CPI (Cur Year) Previous: +1.4%
7:00 a.m. CAN: Mar Core CPI (Cur Month) Previous: +0.5%
7:00 a.m. CAN: Mar Core CPI (Cur Year) Expected: +1.9% Previous: +1.9%
US Market
Friday, April 10, 2009
Mar Federal Budget Balance: -$192.27B. Expected: -$157.5B. Previous: -$192.7B.
Earning report : 17/4 GE, 22/4 APPLE, 29/4 Starbuck,
28/4 NXY
Comments
四月尾美國有大批債劵拍賣，一定會在股市上抽走部份資金。
還有 ALT-A 房債，CDS, 市場好像因上升市而忘記了這些。