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Showing posts from January, 2009

HK Rebound based on Future Settlement

US Market The US Market climbing from 8068 on Monday and close on 8375.45 Wednesday. Almost 300 points gain. The financial sectors leads the rebound as the market speculated that President Obama may set up a so-called bad bank to absorb the financial toxic assets. The Japan Market The Nikkei closed at 8251.24 + 144.95 Fast retailing closed at 11,290, +20 (0.17%) UFJ closed at 527 + 24 (4.77%) Toyota closed at 3050 + 70 (+2.34%) The HK Market The HS Index opened high at 13560 and closed low at 13154.43 + 575 (4.58%) turnover 391M 005 gain 5.15 closed at 62.60 + (8.964%) Turnover 46M 1398 gain 3.38 closed at 3.38 + 0.14 (4.32%) Turnover 330M 3988 gain 0.1 closed at 2.02 + 5.208% Turnover 713M The China Market still on hoiday For Forex The EUR, GBP all climbing back in the past three days EUR 1.3066 at 4.32PM GBP1.4131 JPY 90.15 Today the Economic report International Report Thursday, January 29, 2009 2:00 a.m. UK: Jan House Prices Monthly Expected: -2% Previous: -2.5% 2:00 a.m. UK: Jan ...

Low Volume Sleeping mode, sea wave dangerous. On land to see

23 Jan 2009 US Market The US market is weak opened at 8224 and close at 8122.80 – 105 (-1.28%) low 7957 Microsoft cut 5000 jobs and reported worse than forecast Q4 earning. The banking sectors just enjoy a short lived yesterday and remain low yesterday Citigroup closed at 3.11 BAC closed at 5.71 The Japan Market The Nikkei closed at 7745 – 306 (-3.8%) opened at 7965 The UFJ closed at 474 (-2.66%) Fast Retailing closed at 10980 – 780 (-6.63%) Toyota closed at 2810 –45 (-1.57%) Canon Closed at 2540 – 140 (-5.22%) The HK Market HS Index opened 12542 and closed at 12578 –79 (-0.63%) turnover is 337 M The 005 remain stable opened at 57 and closed at 57.45 High 59.05 volume 40M 1398 opened at 3.2 closed at 3.24 = 0.010 (+0.31%) 3988 opened at 1.92 closed at 1.92 –0.01 (-0.518%) The Shanghai Market Opened at 2004.95 and closed at 1990.66 –14.29 (-0.71%) turnover 629M Forex at 4:51 pm EUR 1.2841 JPY 88.37 GBP1.3663 AUD0.6461 The USD is strength over most of the currency. Keep on aware foreign ...

OIL ETN DXO & ETF UCO Need to compare performance

22 Jan 2009 The Oil ran based on the forecast, however the DXO performance do not insync with the OIL Price from 33.3 - 42. Therefore I suggest to keep an eye on another ETF directly related to Oil . UCO - Last night, the UCO is apparently out performance than DXO. DXO is an ELN - It is Linked Note For UCO it is an ETF The cost structure is different DXO Market Price is 2.53 Investor Fee 0.75% Premium 0.88% Market Cap 554.7M Inception 6/16/08 UCO Market Price 11.71 Expense Ratio 0.95% Market Cap 107.2M Inception 11/25/2008 Market daily Review US Market The US Market open at 8057 and once dropped to 7943. While the new treasurer release that the new bailout complain will be release in coming two to three weeks the market starting moving up and closed high to 8228. The AAPL report better than forecast AAPL Result (Source from DOW) Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $1.78 per share, $0.39 better than the First Call consensus of $1.39; revenues rose 5.8% year/year to $10.17 bln vs the $9.75 bl...

Too bad, the market got no excuse is pointing downward

21 Jan 2009 The market really pointing downward as the selling is too heavy on banking sectors all over the world. I think this time needs more time to recover. There is no support in this moment because the Dow is heading last support 7950. I think it will go back to 7700 direction. Even the Obrama release the stimulus plan. With the earning release. The market may be getting worse. If u are a smart person better step aside and see. Alert for any opportunity especially in currency. If you have oil, of course stick to the market movement The crude oil really close over 40 after contract settlement. Now it is time to see what excuse will be use to stimulate it in this month. Basically I do believe, after the uptrend, the next month low will be near 30. So the buying process can be delay a bit US Market US market opened at 8280 and closed low at 7949 – 332.13 (-4.01%) The financial sectors –16.56% Tech – 5.35% Energy – 4.55% BAC closed at 5.10 Gap Open low at 5.92 previous day close 7.17...

buy more oil tonight and ready to settle tomorrow morning

20 Jan 2009 The trader keep playing around the market, only 005 is under pressure, actually someone is buying 941 to play around the index. If tonight US and EU market is up, tomorrow early morning will be on uptrend too. Who is going to Holiday better settle it tomorrow. In this movement the oil is around 32 .51 match the lowest price before 21 settlement day. If the guessing is correct. After tonight, the oil will back to near 40 again. So tonight I will use action to see whether I am right or not. Dear all, please aware GBP, you know if it reach 1.36xx, better keep some GBP for travel trip. Cathy just have a special offer, go to london only HKD2990.00 round trip. Good deal ! US Holiday, no market activities However in UK Market – UK announced its second British bank rescue plan. The plan included a wide range of measures to dispose of risky assets. Shares of Royal Bank of Scotland tumbled 64% after the said it could report the UK biggest ever annual loss of up to 28 Billion pounds...

Be patient to wait for the market behavior on tuesday and wednesday.

19 Jan 2009 The trader is just playing around the HK Market. Actually there are two keys positive news supporting the market 1. it is the UK government support on financial market. 2. is the Obrama release on the fund for banking sector. It is not the effect of Obrama on broad but the reason is the release of the money. If it is correct, the pressure on HK index will be solved For China Market, the market seems quite positive. But I still believe the 2000 is the dangerous level for Shanghai Market. Even it run high. I still prefers to gain money first on 2823. Why? It is because the volume on Shanghai market is reducing. Most of the people is worry about the bond market of US. Therefore I had found two short bond ETF to share with you all 1. PST Ultra short 7- 10 Y Treasury bonds 2. TBT Ultra short 20 Y Treasury bonds. But little to keep watch the performance and the market For Market behaviour see the following remark The same, if you have profit. Why not take it before Chinese New Y...

Rebound started ! Gain Money?

16 Jan 2009 Great! The US market really went to the 8000 and than rebound. The rebound started and may go for few days. Why? The good news started coming out from financial sector both from US and UK. The USD/JPY went back to 90.44 and there is big movement in currency. GBP jumped to 1.4923 at 6:09 pm. Tonight is the best time people play around with the OIL. It will tried to lower than last night 34 / barrel. Remember to buy more more DXO. Besides, the HK market is really playing by the traders. There is a lot of pressure in HK market. The behaviour is abnormal. Why? The whole day Dow future is over + 40 to +98 in market time, but the trader still press down the price of 941 and HS index. However in index time, the contract increases and pointing positive. Future is only -4 13252 If anyone who had hold the 2823, be careful because Shanghai has been up for three days and people in china may settled the shares before New Years. And then they have long holidays. For today market move...

The downside market will be continued

15 Jan 2009 There is no good news, even Europe market open, also in red. Therefore, Tonight, the US Market will keep pointing to 8000 direction. To buy any put vehicles, remember to wait at least half hours as the price will be stable a bit. We are surfing in the high wave, keep flexible and don't be stubborn! US Market US Stocks dropped sharply on the disappointing retail sales and the bad performance on financial industry. Nortel Networks filed for bankruptcy protection gave more pressure on IT industry. At the day end the sick leave of Steve Job also give pressure to AAPL price. Dow open at 8446 and touched the lowest point at 8183 and close at 8,200 – 248 (-2.94%) The US Crude Oil once dropped to around 35.6 / barrel which dragged down most of the Oil shares. BP Close at 43.19, DO close at 56.15 and XOM close at 75.1 and SLB close at 40.43. NXY close at 15.33 HSBC ADR Close at 42.19 around HKD65.39 HK Market HS Index open at 13136 and close at 13,242.96 – low is 12904 - 461 po...

The opposite of china and HK market performance may be a trap

Since the movement of China and HK market are in two extreme. I have following thinking. The China government support the market to reduce the impact from foreigner investor. So the Shanghai Index have straight climb for over 3.59% Morgan stanley release the report in the morning to downgrade HSBC 005. HK to 52 should not be a co incident. They may not to lower the market before Obrama in auguration and then once obrama release the stimulus plan and the remaining money to save the banking industrial. There will be a climb to around 9000. If in this few days, they can lower the dow to near 8000 sides. They have almost 800 point profit. This is only my feeling. Because the performance of DOW is very tricky in day time. It onces + 50 in the afternoon HK opening time and then - 45 at 5:55pm. For detail of today market performance, see the following : 14 Jan 2009 Dow opened at 8475 and once went up to over 8517 at 10:09am and came down to the lowest point at 8407 at 2:23 pm and closed at 84...

Perfer to buy PUT for this few days down side opportunity.

13 Jan 2008 US Market The DOW open at 8602 and close at 8473.97 – 125.21( -1.46%) turnover volume is 273,548,059 The worst performance is Citigroup C close at 5.6 – 1.15 (-17.04%) , BAC also lost 1.56 (-12.01%) closed at 11.43 AA before earning release already tumble to 10.06 close -/0.75 (-6.94%) AA Q4 earning $-0.28 missing estimates by $0.18 Both Crude Oil and Gold retreat on 12 Jan US time but NXY do not have much movement open at around 16.4 and close at 16.4, Once go up to 17.00 HK Market The HS Index open at 13910.33 and rebound to 14118 and then rolling down and close at 13668.00 with volume 472M The HS Future close at 13569 5 close at 73 -0.75(-1.07%) with volume 12M, 1398 close at 3.41 –0.05 (1.445%) with 541 M 3988 close at 1.85 +0.01 (+0.543%) with volume 1,027M The property sector is the worse – 3.05% The finance sector is –1.72% start to stable Shanghai Market The Shanghai index open at 1880 and close at 1863 – 36.98 (-1.95%) The 2600 in China is 6.44 – 3.74% BOC is 2.92...

The Oil shares were really in red and so as HK market

On Friday 8 Jan 2009, the job loss outcome is 524,000 in Dec which bringing the total unemployment close to 2.75 million. The traders makes use of this figure and the bad news on oil industry to let the DOW further down to 8599.18 – 148.28 (-1.64%) The Oil related shares really seeing red as both the OIL tried reaching 39 DO - 64 change to 61.76 CVX - 74 change to 72.8 NXY - 18 change to 17.4 The oil price most nicely will be going to 35 direction because 1) GAZA most likely will end the war as Obara on broad 2) the future will be settlement on around 21 Jan 2008 According to Dec experience, the price is will at the lowest on the future settlement day. Once it finished it will climb bad higher. So aware on all those Oil price and buy more around 35 through DXO and take a look on the oil shares too. on 12 Jan 2009, the HK Market following the negative direction of US market. Japan market is on holiday. China Shanghai Market is up in the morning but lost the positive figure by closing at...

Aware US Oil Share tonight. May be in Red

The HK Market did not have direction, the Banking sectors still have pressure over all. HS index close at 14407 – 8.39 (-0.06%) and future is 14261 with turnover 451M 1398 3.61,-0.07 (-1.897%) before auction time and after auction is 3.65 (– 1.084%) 3988 : 1.94 –0.02 (0.515) before auction time and after auction time is 1.96, 005 keep steady at 74.5 +0.7 (+0.946%) 939 : 3.92 0.04 (+1.03%) However China Shanghai Market is close high at 1904 from open 1875 +26.68 (+1.42%) Turnover is 501M Dow Future is –18 at 8678 and S&P future is –1.75 905. In US Market, since the Chevon CVX warned late Thursday its fourth quarter earnings are shaping to be significantly lower than third quarter results due to a steep drop in energy price and narrower refining margins and Schlumberger plan to lay off 1000 workers in North America. The Oil companies shares may have selling pressure on Friday. Today there is follow reports US Market Friday, January 9, 2008 8:30 a.m. Dec Non-Farm Payrolls: Exp...

Bank Shares

The HK Market dropped 15757 - 14415 within two days. The contribution heavily from Telecom sectors and banks sectors. This drop is achieved from both technical and events support. From technical chart, the RSI is also over 80 in HSI from events, there are the release of 3 G license in China, the institution heavily selling construction bank and ICBC shares. All these news are arranged by the traders to get profit and then follow by the individual investors. Now it is just the middle of the adjustment. It should have at least one more day downward Talking about the ICBC and the BOC, I just checked that the cost price of this Institution investor. ICBC - RMB1.22 and BOC around HKD1.12. That means even there are still good profit to sell in this range for all those Institute. Key investors are 1398   IPO Capital Structure Institutes Shares Goldman SachsH 16,476,014,155 Dresdner Bank LuxembourgH ...

2009 Attitude on Market

Happy New Year 2009 After resting for almost 10 days. It is time back to work. Honestly, I was not really doing nothing in past ten days. I did do some trade. Like buy China Oil. 857 in HK market around christmas time and oil ETF. Why? It is because I believe the oil market will be active after holiday. Luckily, I get the deal and done right. It is the same attitude in 2009 Market. Don't look it too positive and negative in 2009. We have to be calm, plan and act ahead according to the calendar e.g special event like US President Inauguration, Rate decision meeting and announcement, economic figure announcement and market feedback. Afterall. The key is to act fast and quick with confidence. When the outcome is out of your mind. Cut loss and wait for next chances. Cause 2009 are very unstable and no one can tell how it will be. According to the the Economist's forecast, the economic still in contraction, financial conditions will be worse far more than better. More unemployment,...